RUSSIA LURES AZERBAIJAN WITH NEW PEACE AND ENERGY INITIATIVES
by Natalia Leshchenko

World Markets Research Centre
Global Insight
September 16, 2008

The president of Azerbaijan is visiting his Russian counterpart
Dmitry Medvedev in Moscow today at the latter’s invitation. The
conversation will focus on two principal subjects: a peace settlement
in Nagorno-Karabakh and Azerbaijan’s energy policy.

Significance:Russia is keen to play a peacemaker role in the
protracted conflict between Armenia and Azerbaijan over the
pro-Armenian separatist republic on Azerbaijani territory. Azerbaijan
has been building up its military muscle recently, and calls for a
military solution of the conflict are heard increasingly. Russia,
a traditional ally of Armenia, is keen to avoid another military
confrontation in the Caucasus, and the situation where it may be
forced to support its ally Armenia in the framework of Collective
Security Treaty Organisation. Hence, Medvedev is initiating talks
between the Armenian and Azerbaijani leaders, which he has offered
to mediate, to broker an eventual peace deal. Russia is equally keen
to preclude Azerbaijan’s military, political and energy gravitation
towards NATO and the Western organisations, and to counterbalance the
obvious efforts taken by the U.S. administration recently, including
a visit by vice-president Dick Cheney, to draw Azerbaijan into its
sphere of influence. Medvedev will be proposing a treaty banning
deployment of military forces from outside the region and will also
be lobbying Russia’s purchases of Azerbaijani gas from the second
stage of Shah-Deniz field. The Azerbaijani president faces some
rather tough–if ultimately luxury–choices between the wooings of
the Western and Russian leadership. Known for his diplomatic skills,
Aliyev is likely to seek to navigate the situation without making a
clear alliance with either of the contending sides.