RUSSIA’S STANCE ON GARABAGH ‘UNCHANGED’
AzerNews Weekly
Sept 17 2008
Azerbaijan
Azerbaijan was assured on Tuesday that Russia has not altered its
position on the Upper (Nagorno) Garabagh conflict, despite Moscow`s
recent recognition of two Georgian rebel regions that raised fears that
it can no longer act as an impartial mediator in regional disputes.
The over a decade-long Armenia-Azerbaijan conflict was high on agenda
of talks between Russian and Azerbaijani Presidents Dmitry Medvedev
and Ilham Aliyev outside Moscow on Tuesday.
"I confirmed that Russia`s stance remains unchanged, voiced support for
further direct talks between the Azerbaijani and Armenian presidents,
and assured President Aliyev that we will continue providing the needed
assistance in seeking a mutually acceptable solution," Medvedev said
after hosting his Azerbaijani counterpart in the Meindorf residence.
Russia co-chairs the OSCE Minsk Group brokering Garabagh settlement,
along with the United States and France.
Aliyev said that despite a very complicated situation in the region,
"there are good pre-conditions for improving it."
"If the Garabagh problem finds its solution, new prospects will open
up for good cooperation," he said.
The Azerbaijani leader emphasized that Baku and Moscow were maintaining
high-level relations that could set an example for other regional
states. "If everyone enjoyed such good neighborliness ties as
Russia and Azerbaijan, there would not be any conflicts, and any
misunderstanding altogether."
Aliyev said there was a need for joining effort in bolstering peace
and stability in the region.
The Azerbaijani and Russian leaders also discussed economic
cooperation. Medvedev said the Russian-Azerbaijani trade is to reach
$2 billion by the end of 2008.
"We are content with our partnership. The goals we have outlined during
my visit to Baku [early in July] are being reached, and I hope that we
will achieve the trade turnover target of $2 billion by the year-end,
although the economic situation is not that favorable," Medvedev said.
Aliyev stressed that bilateral trade was rapidly developing and its
structure was improving. "We are pleased with the development of our
cooperation, which is encompassing very broad ranges."
Expectations from Moscow visit
Russia has a plethora of questions regarding Azerbaijan. Although Baku
avoided direct involvement in the military conflict in neighboring
Georgia last month, this does not answer all of these questions or
meet all of Russia`s demands. Moscow is expecting the South Caucasus
republic, which maintained partial neutrality on the issue, to put
forth a more clear-cut stance.
Following a brief war with Georgia early in August, President Medvedev
signed a decree on August 26 recognizing the independence of Georgia`s
rebel regions of South Ossetia and Abkhazia. The move heightened
tensions in the volatile Caucasus region and put a further strain
on Moscow`s relations with the West. Tbilisi, the U.S. and numerous
European powers condemned the move.
Meanwhile, tensions remain high in the region. Unlike the West,
Russia tends to take action first and then tries to gain potential
allies. Now, Russia says the recognition of South Ossetia and Abkhazia
is irreversible. Furthermore, it has pledged to forge diplomatic
relations with the rebel regions soon and is stationing military
contingent in the regions instead of peacekeeping forces.
Thus, Russia`s persistence is evident. But the West is not idle
either. NATO members are convening in Tbilisi, and an attempt is
being made to set up a Georgia-NATO council.
Russia`s problems are not confined to the prospect of Georgia`s
admission to the alliance. Its close ally, Armenia, is facing
isolation. In addition to that, Russia, despite shattered confidence
in its mission on brokering Garabagh settlement, is unwilling to give
up its position in the mediating Minsk Group.
Russia, which is losing ground in the South Caucasus, is seeking
new strongholds and allies. But the situation leaves a lot to be
desired. Even CIS states maintaining close ties with Russia are
unwilling to recognize the independence of South Ossetia and Abkhazia,
and it is futile to expect this step from Azerbaijan as well. Baku
has repeatedly said it was firm on supporting Georgia`s territorial
integrity.
It is likely that Russia will now attempt to weaken Azerbaijan`s
relations with Georgia as much as it can. However, these ties are so
deep that dealing a blow upon them will prove a daunting task. Oil
transportation routes, the regional group GUAM that comprises both
countries, and a railway line that is being built are all factors
strengthening these bonds.
It is also possible that Russia will prompt Azerbaijan to sell gas to
Georgia for a higher price, and the gas supplies issue will, overall,
be a key issue during talks. Additionally, Russia stands firmly on
its proposal to buy the entire bulk of gas produced by Azerbaijan.
Furthermore, Azerbaijan`s integration with NATO is closely followed
by its northern neighbor, although Baku is acting cautiously in this
regard. This carefulness does not stem merely from geo-political
reasons. In general, Azerbaijan is exercising caution in its Western
integration, and some authoritarian tendencies within the country
are holding back these efforts. Now, Russia is leveraging the most
support from Belarus and a number of authoritarian Central Asian
republics. Aspiring democracies Ukraine and Georgia are now seceding
from CIS — the same way the Baltic states once pulled out of the
organization`s predecessor, Soviet Union — in what analysts describe
as the so-called "second collapse" of the USSR.
Most likely, Azerbaijan`s hesitation will do nothing to accelerate
NATO`s unfolding advent to the region. Russia continues to assert
that it is exercising a fair approach to the Garabagh problem, but
this appears as promises with no guarantees. Moscow will keep making
these statements only as long as Azerbaijan remains in its sphere of
influence and Garabagh diplomacy proceeds under its scenario. It is
possible that as time elapses, Russia will toughen its military and
geo-political demands to Azerbaijan, although the balance of forces
in the region is changing.
But the changing balance and NATO`s interference in the region may
prompt Russia to seek expansion of its limited military alliance. Then,
it may demand that Azerbaijan join the Collective Security Treaty
Organization, a bloc of former Soviet republics, which would
essentially restrict the country`s independence.
In any case, this possibility should not be ruled out. If NATO moves
to spread its clout in the strategically-important region, Russia
will try to create a reliable military circle around itself, and,
in doing so, it will appeal to other CIS states.
In any case scenario, Moscow`s friendship is unlikely to bring any
benefits. Past experience suggests that in its relations with the
former Soviet republics, Russia has been failing to relinquish its
empire-like ambitions.