ECHO OF FIVE DAY WAR: THE WAR IN SOUTH OSSETIA DRAMATICALLY ALTERED SITUATION IN THE REGION
by Alla Yazkova

WPS Agency
DEFENSE and SECURITY (Russia)
September 17, 2008 Wednesday
Russia

ARMENIA AND AZERBAIJAN CONSIDERED PARALLELS BETWEEN THE WAR IN
SOUTH OSSETIA AND THE CONFLICT OVER NAGORNO-KARABAKH; The effect of
the Five Day War on the Karabakh conflict settlement: two chairmen
of the OSCE Minsk Group out of three recognize people’s right to
self-determination.

"Parallels between these two conflicts are undeniable," political
scientist Khikmet Gajizade said. "The Russian-Georgian conflict
cannot help having an effect on the conflict over Karabakh. Should
Russia establish complete control over Georgia, Azerbaijan will be
in trouble."

All the same, Gajizade added that "the somewhat forgotten
conflicts in the Caucasus are once again in the focus of attention
of the international community" (it was a reference to the
Azerbaijani-Armenian conflict over Nagorno-Karabakh, of course).

The OSCE Minsk Group with its three chairmen have been trying to
preserve the status quo and arbitrate for nearly 15 years. The Five Day
Way and recognition of Abkhazia and South Ossetia by Russia, however,
changed everything – even including views on territorial integrity.

This correspondent approached Armen Sarkisjan, leader of the
Dashnaktsutjun – Movement 88 faction of the National Assembly of the
Nagorno-Karabakh Republic, for comments on the future of the OSCE Minsk
Group. Sarkisjan admitted that the situation was quite tricky because
two countries of the three were in a state of conflict (Russia and
the United States) with the third (France) trying to make peace. "And
since two poles recognize peoples’ right to self determination (the
West – Kosovo’s, Russia – Abkhazia’s and South Ossetia’s), it will be
interesting now to see what they intend to do about Nagorno-Karabakh,"
he said. "As long as this proclamation of sovereignty does not create
a war, of course…"

Neither Azerbaijan nor Armenia officially recognized Abkhazia and
South Ossetia. When the Five Day War was wrapped up, their governments
concentrated on national interests rather than on global geopolitical
plans and projects.

Baku for one cannot help being aware of the fact that friendship with
Washington did not save Tbilisi from a shooting war with Russia or
that a the United States and its NATO allies never even considered
a military confrontation with Russia.

In a word, support of Russia by any of these countries will only
make Nagorno-Karabakh conflict settlement all the more difficult
to accomplish because Russia does not want to recognize the
Nagorno-Karabakh Republic and because a direct Azerbaijani-Armenian
dialogue will be hardly possible if Yerevan chooses to condemn Georgia
or recognize its wayward autonomies.