NEW RUSSIAN BASES IN ABKHAZIA, S. OSSETIA STRENGTHEN MOSCOW’S HAND IN S. CAUCASUS, BLACK SEA REGION
by Paul Goble

Georgiandaily
Sept 18 2008
NY

Russia will set up land, sea and air bases in the breakaway republics
of Abkhazia and South Ossetia, thus strengthening Moscow’s military
position not only in the South Caucasus but across the Black Sea
region and preemptively countering any moves by NATO to increase
cooperation with or extend membership to Georgia.

Yesterday, Moscow signed agreements with the two republics it has
recognized as independent countries that makes Moscow responsible
for providing security to these republics and for representing
them and their citizens abroad where their governments do not have
representations.

In addition, the sides commit themselves to respecting the territorial
integrity and borders of the Russian Federation, Abkhazia and South
Ossetia, specify that citizens of one may be citizens of the other,
and prohibit membership in any bloc or organization directed against
one of the signatory states.

But the most immediately important aspect of the accords concerns the
establishment of Russian bases in the two republics. In South Ossetia,
Russia will set up an air base and an army base near Dzhavy, which
is not far from Tskhinvali. And in Abkhazia, it will have a navy base
at Ochamchir and an air base at Gudaute.

According to Vladimir Yevseyev, a Moscow military expert, there
will be approximately 3800 Russian military personnel in each of
these republics, and they will not only support the Russian fleet in
the Black Sea but also serve as "a restraining factor" if Georgia,
"as seems likely, sooner or later will become a member of NATO.

And consequently, "Nezavisimaya gazeta" concludes, this will "change
in a cardinal fashion the balance of forces in the Transcaucasus"
and even further afield, allowing Moscow to project power and thus
to have a continuing influence not only on Georgia but on Azerbaijan
and Armenia as well.

The signing of the treaties did not go without a hitch: Eduard Kokoity,
the leader of South Ossetia, once again could not restrain himself
and said, as he has before, that his republic "intends to become part
of Russia" even though Moscow has made it clear that won’t happen —
at least formally — anytime soon.

In addition to Russia’s military presence in the two breakaway
republics, Moscow may be seeking to use them in other ways to weaken
the countries of the south Caucasus and thus to strengthen Moscow’s
position there.

One possibility of such actions that has been discussed in some detail
by Aleksey Chichkin on the RPMonitor.ru portal would have Abkhazia
create separate autonomous territories within its borders for the
Svans and Mingrelians, two sub-ethnoses of the Georgian nation.

Not only would the creation of such entities have an impact on IDPs who
have fled that region, but it could help to play up tensions between
the two groups in Georgia itself now or at least represent a continuing
threat to Tbilisi that Moscow could employ at some point in the future.

And while not directly connected to what Moscow has done in the
breakaway republics, the Russian authorities may be behind something
else: increasing activism by ethnic Armenians in Javakhetia, a
region in southern Georgia, in the wake of the Russian government’s
recognition of Abkhazia and South Ossetia.

Aram Argutyan, the head of the Bagin Information Center in Javakhetia,
gave an extensive interview this week in which he said that Yerevan
has little interest in helping his people – the Armenian government
recognizes that any moves might be counterproductive – but that his
people can now look to Moscow after its recognition of Abkhazia and
South Ossetia. Such attention from the ethnic Armenians of southern
Georgia could give Moscow yet another lever on Georgia.

At the very least, the Russian government’s ability to stimulate
tensions and unrest there creates another headache for Tbilisi even
if the Russian intelligence services do not do anything immediately.