ARMENIA’S BUSINESS CLIMATE INDEX MAKES 96.8%, ECONOMIC ACTIVITY INDEX – 94.4%, CONSUMER CONFIDENCE INDEX – 98.4% IN THIRD QUARTER OF 2008 ON SAME PERIOD OF 2007

Noyan Tapan

Se p 19, 2008

YEREVAN, SEPTEMBER 19, NOYAN TAPAN. According to the Central Bank
of Armenia (CBA), out of the composite economic indices of Armenia,
the business climate index (BCI) made 49.3 in 3rd quarter against 49.1
in 2nd quarter of 2008, the economic activity index (EAI)- 65.3 in 3rd
quarter against 79.3 in 2nd quarter, and the consumer confidence index
(CCI) made 51.6 against 49.5 in 2nd quarter.

NT was informed by the CBA PR Service that although in the 3rd quarter
of 2008, two of the indices had a downward tendency, they were at
a stable (higher than 45) level. The BCI made 100.4% in 3rd quarter
of 2008 on the previous quarter and 96.8% as compared with the same
quarter of 2007, the EAI made 84.24% and 94.4% respectively, and the
CCI – 104.3% and 98.4% respectively.

In 2005 the CBA started quarterly surveys on financial, nonfinancial
organizations and households. The purpose of surveys is to assess the
current economic situation change as compared with the previous period,
to assess the expectations of business entities and to calculate the
composite economic indices based on the results of surveys.

In the 3rd quarter 833 organizations in industry, construction and
service sector, as well as 1,813 households in Yerevan and all Armenian
marzes were surveyed. The surveys were done via the Internet, phone,
letters and fax.

Based on the servey results, the BCI, EAI and CCI were calculated. BCI
is calculated based on the risks and general economic conditions
estimates of the companies included in the sample. EAI is calculated
based on the production volumes, orders and inventories (current and
expected levels).

CCI is the arithmetic average of the folowing questions: households’
incomes, ependitures and employment changes, the assessment of the
current economic situation.