DID SAAKASHVILI HELP McCAIN?

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[04:28 pm] 22 September, 2008

"No matter who becomes U.S. next president, Barack Obama or John
McCain, no developments are expected in the U.S. policy in regard
to South Caucasus," says Dr. Dennis Sandole, Professor of Conflict
Resolution and International Relations from George Mason University
(USA). Mr. Sandole was in Armenia last week.

He says the USA is more interested in the Balkan States than in
South Caucasus.

We foresee positive developments in the region in case Democrat Barack
Obama is elected the U.S President. The President might appoint a
special envoy /most likely ex President Bill Clinton/ to deal with
the conflicts of South Caucasus.

"In case Republican John McCain wins the election, nothing will change
in the region," says the American political scientist.

"A new gap has emerged between the West and East," Dennis Sandole
said with regard to the Russian-Georgian conflict. When attacking
South Ossetia Georgia’s President Michael Saakashvili was sure that
he would lose the war. And yet, he wanted to draw the attention of
the international community and make them accept frozen conflicts
before the escalation of the situation.

Saakashvili’s attack was an attempt to waken the USA, Turkey, NATO
and the EU. It meant that the governments of Georgia, Armenia and
Azerbaijan couldn’t use the frozen conflicts to solve their interior
problems.

Saakashvili’s steps were aimed at supporting McCain during the
presidential race.

The recent developments in South Caucasus aim to ensure the stability
of Turkey and Russia. Currently they need the support of their regional
neighbours. The platform of stability and cooperation in Caucasus
proposed by Turkey suggests a new wave in the Russian-Georgian war
and a new mechanism of governance in the region.