GEORGIAN FACTOR IN THE US MIDDLE EAST POLICY
Boris Dolgov

en.fondsk.ru
22.09.2008

The US support for the Tbilisi aggression against South Ossetia
has highlighted the importance of Georgia as the country located
in the proximity to the Middle East to Washington’s plans. Clearly,
the objectives of the US presence in Georgia are

– Maintaining the uninterrupted transit of oil for the US consumption
via the Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan pipeline;

– Muscling Russia out of the Caucasus and turning Georgia into a
foothold for the destabilization of Russia’s southern regions,
especially the Caucasian Republics of Chechnya, Dagestan,
Kabardino-Balkaria, and Ingushetia1;

– Gaining control over the Caspian region and Central Asia;

– Using the territory of Georgia as an intermediate location in an
attack against Iran.

The neocons who are currently at the helm in Washington are trying
to finalize the process of partitioning Russia, which began with
the demise of the USSR. In this light, any moves made by Moscow to
ensure its security, particularly in South Ossetia which is located
at Russia’s southern border, are portrayed as "an aggression" and
cause the response in the form of ferocious informational attacks
and demonstrations of force like the recent dispatching of the US
Navy to the Black Sea.

US Republican presidential candidate J. McCain called for recognizing
the independence of Chechnya and several other republics of the Russian
Federation in response to Moscow’s recognition of the independence of
South Ossetia and Abkhazia. In an interview to ABC on September 12,
Republican nominee for Vice President Sara Palin described Russia’s
conduct in South Ossetia as an aggression against the small democratic
Georgia and said she did not exclude opting for a military conflict
with Russia in the future.

A US senator wrote in a paper published on September 8 that, in accord
with a secret deal between Georgia, the US, and Israel, two runways
had been constructed in Georgia to be used by Israeli reconnaissance
aircrafts to monitor Russia and Iran. The runways would also be used
by the US and Israeli warplanes in the case of a war with Iran. The
Russian army destroyed both runways while suppressing the Georgian
aggression against South Ossetia.

Both due to its proximity to Iran and from the political standpoint,
Georgia is a country whose territory could be conveniently used for
an attack against Iran. The US and Israeli warplanes based in Georgia
would have to traverse the airspace of either Armenia or Azerbaijan
to reach Iran, but it appears that the circumstance is not regarded
as a problem in Pentagon.

The September, 2008 visit of French President N. Sarkozy to Syria –
a country located far away from Georgia – is nevertheless directly
related to the=2 0conflict in South Ossetia. Sarkozy toured Syria a
few days after its President Bashar al-Assad expressed support for
Russia’s reaction to the Georgian aggression against the formerly
unrecognized Republic and said Syria was ready to host the Russian
Iskander missiles in case Moscow decided to deploy them in response
to the deployment of the US antimissiles in Poland.

No doubt, the objectives of Sarkozy’s visit to Syria and his talks
with Assad were not limited to an attempt – in the interests of the
US – to destroy the country’s alliance with Iran and to preclude
its further rapproachment with Russia. Still, as French diplomatic
sources disclosed, the themes had been invoked. As a reward, Syria
was promised a normalization of the relations initially with France
and subsecuently with the West in general.

At the same time, Sarkozy is involved in the negotiations on a peace
agreement between Syria and Israel, which are going on between Syria,
Qatar, Turkey, and France. France is playing the role of the key
intermediary in the process.

Sarkozy indicated in an interview to a Syrian radio station after
his meeting with Assad that an Israeli attack against Iran – a
development that would be a serious threat from Syria’s standpoint –
was likely. Assuming hypothetically that Russian missiles are deployed
in Syria, Israel would have to think twice before deciding to attack
Iran (and possibly also Syria as Ir an’s ally). Though, the support
for the idea of a war with Iran is not all-embracing in Israel. For
example, Israeli President Shimon Peres said he opposes a military
strike on Iran and prefers the use of international economic sanctions
to persuade Tehran to halt its nuclear enrichment programme. He said:
"If the Americans manage to form a coalition to unify their positions
with those of Europeans, they have sufficient means to exert pressure
on the Iranians".

The new system of international relations which started to
emerge after the August conflict in Georgia makes a unipolar world
impossible. Though a new confrontation between the US and Russia is not
imminent (as both are interested in maintaining serious relations and
contacts), an economic and political rivalry between the two countries
is likely to be an enduring phenomenon. Under the circumstances Russia
should reconsider its current course in foreign politics which, until
recently, was typically described as pragmatic. The course motivated
by the hunger for immediate economic benefits may have no future and
doom Russia to being an outsider in the new international settings.

If Russia seeks to strengthen its international positions,
it needs to focus on its persistent domestic problems. Those
include the overreliance on natural resources in the economy,
drastic disproportions in the distribution of income levels among the
population unseen in developed countries (the incomes of the wealthiest
and the poorest strata of the Russian population are estimated to
differ by a factor of several dozen), and the widespread corruption.

It is also of great importance to Russia to identify potential allies
– which many of the Middle East countries are – and to find ways to
attract them. Russia needs to act synchronously in both hemispheres
with the purpose of forming a more predictable and balanced world
which cannot but be multi-polar.

1 Experts from the Institute for Oriental Studies of the Russian
Academy of Science opine that the US intelligence community
is attempting to destabilize the situation in these Republics,
particularly in Ingushetia, with the help of Sufi orders whose Sheikhs
regularly visit the US.