HOME TRANSDNIESTRIAN CONFLICT UNTHAWING
Vladimir Solovyev

Kommersant
Sep. 22, 2008
Russia

Moscow makes peace between Chisinau and Tiraspol before NATO
meeting The second meeting this year between Moldovan President
Vladimir Voronin and leader of the unrecognized Transdniestrian
Moldovan Republic Igor Smirnov is about to take place. That is but
a prelude to an even bigger event, the signing of a joint statement
on the resolution of the longtime conflict with the preservation of
Moldova’s territorial integrity. That document will be signed in the
presence of Russian President Dmitry Medvedev and will launch the
final settlement process of the Transdniestrian problem. Moscow is
rushing to show off its successes in this field before the December
meeting of NATO foreign ministers.

Authorities in Chisinau and Tiraspol are preparing for the meeting of
the two leaders. Last week, Smirnov announced that he had instructed
the Transdniestrian Foreign Ministry to prepare materials for the
negotiations. Smirnov said contacts were being renewed in order to
normalize relations between the two sides of the Dniester River and
"ensure peace, stability and prosperous conditions for the peoples
of the republic."

Smirnov did not specify the date of the talks. Kommersant has learned
from a source in the Transdniestrian Foreign Ministry, however,
that the meeting will be this week. "We insisted that it take place
on September 19, but that didn’t suit the Moldovan side. Chisinau is
suggesting September 23, but that isn’t good for us," a high-placed
source in the Transdniestrian Foreign Ministry said. "Now we are
talking about the second half of the week." The source said the
negotiations could take place earlier as well.

The place of the meeting remains unchanged. Voronin and Smirnov
will meet in the city of Bendery, where their first face-to-face
meeting in seven years took place on April 11. Since then, events
have taken place that clearly show Moscow’s desire for a final
settlement of the Transdniestrian problem and peace between Chisinau
and Tiraspol. Medvedev received Voronin and Smirnov separately in
his Sochi residence and assured them both that Russia would become
the guarantor of the future agreement between them.

Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov repeated that promise at the
end of the week speaking to the Federation Council. "Russia will
actively cooperate in the peaceful resolution of all conflicts within
the CIS on the basis of international law and respect for all the
principles of the UN Charter and previously reached agreements. We will
therefore realize our intermediary role in the negotiation process;
that applies in full measure to Transdniestria and Nagorny Karabakh,"
Lavrov stated. To make sure the Transdniestrian leadership was not
tempted to demand recognition for their republic by analogy with
South Ossetia and Abkhazia, Lavrov clearly stated that "The South
Ossetia crisis did not set a precedent."

The negotiations between Voronin and Smirnov are just part of the
Russian plan to resolve the longtime conflict. In Bendery, they are
supposed to agree on positions and prepare for a more significant
event, a joint meeting on Russian territory in the presence of the
Russian president. That moment is meant to be the turning point in the
negotiating process. Kommersant has learned that, under Medvedev’s
watchful eye, the leaders of the conflicting sides are to sign a
joint statement of adherence to the principles of sovereignty and
territorial integrity. A commitment to beginning negotiations on the
legal status of the Transdniestrian Moldovan Republic within a united
Moldova is another key point in the document.

Kommersant sources in the Russian Foreign Ministry say that
the historical trilateral meeting should take place no later than
November so that Moscow can show weighty peacekeeping accomplishments
in Transdniestria in time for the December meeting of the foreign
ministers of the NATO member states. Neither Chisinau nor Tiraspol
is opposed to that. Voronin, whose country will hold parliamentary
elections in the spring, has agreed to Moscow’s condition that his
country’s neutral military and political status be put down in writing
in a separate document. Smirnov is also showing his loyalty. After
his meeting with Medvedev, he stopped demanding independence for
his republic.

"At present, Moscow’s desire to launch the peacekeeping process
exceeds all others and Smirnov and Voronin understand that very well,"
a high-placed source in Chisinau commented. "It is important for Russia
to show a positive result in December. Considering the consequences
of the events in the Caucasus, it will look very nice."

If events develop as Moscow plans, Russia will prove to the West that
it is able to solve territorial problems in the former Soviet Union
not only with the use of military forces, but by diplomatic methods
as well. In addition, the United States and European Union will
have the chance to participate directly in the settlement between
Chisinau and Tiraspol, since Moscow does not object to completing
the process it has begun in the 5+2 format (Russia, Ukraine, OSCE,
Moldova, Transdniestria, the U.S. and EU).