TURKEY ENDS ITS LONG POLICY DEPENDENCE ON AZERBAIJAN

PanARMENIAN.Net
23.09.2008 15:16 GMT+04:00

/PanARMENIAN.Net/ The latest developments regarding Nagorno-Karabakh
come as a result of the recent conflict in Georgia, which has only
reactivated two important trends: a Turkish bid for regional stability
and a need to prevent any outbreak of war over Nagorno-Karabakh,
Richard Giragosian, a contributing analyst at Jane’s Information Group,
told a PanARMENIAN.Net reporter.

"This first factor, related to Turkey’s new diplomatic initiative for
regional security and stability, includes a new possible breakthrough
in Turkish-Armenian relations, as seen by the historic visit by
Turkish President Gul to Yerevan. A related development that has
strengthened this chance for a breakthrough in Turkish-Armenian
relations is the fact that Russia is now much more interested in
supporting this process than ever before," he said.

But most significantly, Turkey has now untied and de-linked its policy
toward Armenia from the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict, according to him.

"This Turkish move to end its long policy dependence on Azerbaijan,
in which Ankara’s foreign policy options toward Armenia was hostage
to Baku, should not be under-estimated and reveals a new bold move
by Turkey. The blockade of Armenia has failed and Turkish foreign
policy has been too hostage and tied to the Nagorno-Karabakh issue,
with little or no gain for Turkey. With this move, Turkey regains its
options and flexibility for its foreign policy and Armenia gains a new
economic opportunity, which it also needs in the wake of its critical
over-dependence on Georgia as its main outlet for trade exports and
energy imports," the expert said.

He said that the second trend concerns new fears of a possible outbreak
of hostilities over Karabakh by Azerbaijan, because the Georgian
conflict, and its subsequent Russian invasion, only magnified the need
for stability and showed the danger of so-called "frozen" conflicts
becoming "hot" wars very quickly. "And what is most troubling for
regional security is the fact that Azerbaijan may eventually succeed
in having the strongest military power in this region. And even more
distressing is the fact that Azerbaijan sees a different lesson from
the recent conflict in Georgia. Many leading Azerbaijani officers
see that the most serious Georgian mistake was not their decision
to launch a military campaign to retake South Ossetia, but rather,
Georgia’s strategic mistake was launching military operations before
they were fully prepared or strong enough. Thus, the Azerbaijani view
is that they have learned from the Georgians that it is better for
them to wait until they are strong enough and ready to wage war to
retake Karabakh," Mr Giragosian said