NO GREAT EXPECTATIONS SHOULD BE ANTICIPATED FROM THE MEETINGS ARMENIA-AZERBAIJAN-TURKEY DUE IN NEW-YORK
Karine Ter-Sahakian

PanARMENIAN.Net
23.09.2008 GMT+04:00

Unfortunately, the UN is not a place to resolve arguments and
conflicts; it is just a place where state representatives meet to
discuss what they cannot converse over in any other territory.

In the 63rd session of the United Nations General Assembly the regional
states expect to resolve some problems related to the latest events
in South Osssetia and Georgia. With the active Turkish diplomacy
there can be set hopes on normalization of the Armenian-Turkish
relations. Moreover, the trilateral meeting between the Foreign
Ministers of Armenia, Turkey and Azerbaijan due on September 25 will
apparently be held under US patronage, and most likely the United
States will make every effort to have no Russian representative at
the meeting.

/PanARMENIAN.Net/ Ministers will discuss the Nagorno-Karabakh
conflict – the main sticking point in the relations between the three
countries. Quite possibly Ali Babacan and Elmar Mammadyarov will
try to incline their Armenian counterpart Edward Nalbandyan towards
refusing the OSCE Minsk Group services on the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict
regulation. However, Armenia will never agree on Turkey’s mediation
in the issue, as it would mean simply offering Nagorno Karabakh to
Azerbaijan. But Turkey’s pressure on Azerbaijan is also an option. The
reason lies in the Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan (BTC) pipeline, which became
insecure after the Georgian war. Actually the BTC proved that no
long-term political project can be profitable if it is realized on the
pretensions of politicians and their unquenchable ambition to isolate
the neighbouring country, which in this particular case is Armenia.

Meanwhile, the foreign policy of Turkey has been changing. The United
States is no longer Turkey’s major ally, and it may so happen that
Russia, the country on which Turkey’s economy leans, may take the
place of the US. "Increasingly, Ankara finds itself at the center
of bewildering crosscurrents. It’s a strategic ally of the United
States and Israel – but it also tries to maintain friendly relations
with Syria and Iran. It is a candidate for European Union membership –
but has divisions with the Union over Northern Cyprus. Its borders with
the Caucasus, and cultural ties with Turkic republics in Central Asia,
make Turkey a key part of Europe’s hopes for energy independence from
Russia – but it is heavily dependent on Russian gas and trade. Small
wonder Turkey is refusing to choose sides," Newsweek reports. According
to Russian Ambassador to Ankara Vladimir Ivanovskiy Russian-Turkish
economic relations are developing dynamically and they are inclined
to further growth.

As we have been mentioning, Turkey is a pragmatic country and it
will never act against its interests. The Georgian war showed how
far the Iraqi war and Russian economy can make Turkey walk from its
obligations towards the USA, in order to clear its own path.

Nevertheless, no great expectations should be anticipated from the
meetings due in New-York. The widely advertised meetings of Armenian
and Turkish Presidents can only serve as a guise that conceals the real
state of affairs. After all the UN is not a place to resolve arguments
and conflicts; it is just a place where state representatives meet
to discuss what they cannot converse over in any other territory.

Its incapacity to resolve conflicts the UN has been demonstrating
since the Balkan war, which ended in breakdown of Yugoslavia and
declaration of Kosovo independence. Further, the UN was unable to
settle the Georgian-Ossetian conflict, which resulted in changes not
only in the Caucasus territory but also in the whole world. Let alone
the UN resolutions on the Israeli-Palestinian conflict regulation,
which were never executed. In our opinion, the current state of affairs
has its roots in the fact that the Organization has turned into a
one-way road. All it does is blaming others. Whereas when founding
the UN, great American President Franklin Delano Roosevelt pictured
the Organization only as a "peacemaker", in the true sense of this
word. However, as it seems, the UN is going to suffer the same fate
as the League of Nations, which had to dissolve itself after years
of negligence.