PRE-ELECTION SITUATION IN AZERBAIJAN IS SOMEWHAT LIKE THAT OF THE US

PanARMENIAN.Net
27.09.2008 GMT+04:00

The improper role of Ankara in the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict and
in isolation of Armenia on Baku’s advice had its dirty effect, and
Abdullah Gul’s visit to Yerevan was not evidence of good life, just
like the New-York meetings.

As usual, the latest meeting between the heads of foreign policy
departments of Armenia and Azerbaijan aroused plenty of comments in
both sides. Meanwhile, the current meeting in New-York became a topic
of open discussions because of the Turkish Foreign Minister’s presence
at the meeting. For some reason Azerbaijan suddenly spoke of "the
approval of Armenia to Turkey’s participation in the Nagorno-Karabakh
conflict regulation", while Turkey speaks of "old enemies entering
into negotiations". In spite of all this Armenia keeps silent and
avoids the topic through the statements of the Foreign Minister and
the President, which in the current situation sound not so frank.

/PanARMENIAN.Net/ Naturally, in the front line of fire is the RA
Foreign Ministry; it has to be the first to answer various "awkward"
questions. Less than three weeks is left before the Presidential
Elections of Azerbaijan and, quite naturally, various statements
on Armenia’s readiness to enter into a dialogue with Turkey and
even "return" Nagorno Karabakh will be increasing. No matter how
hard Official Yerevan tries to deny statements of such kind, until
October 15 they will be rising in geometric series. Strangely enough,
the pre-election situation in Azerbaijan is somewhat like that of
the US. Both in Baku and in Washington collapsing the home policy,
the President seeks rescue in the foreign policy of the country. And
though the scale is incomparable, the principles are the same in
the two countries. In fact, these principles are applied in all the
countries, especially in the post-Soviet territory. Ilham Aliyev
is well-aware of the outcome of elections and of the reaction of
international community in case he does not publicly confirm some
of his positions on transportation of hydrocarbon and on Nagorno
Karabakh. The issue of oil- and gas-pipelines is quite a serious
matter, but Nagorno Karabakh requires maximum accuracy: Azerbaijan
will not take the track of Georgia; otherwise the West will simply
reconsider its energy policy towards Azerbaijan. Aliyev’s expectations
from the USA in the person of the US President and Prime-Minister have
already proved vain. Turkey is the next on this line. The improper role
of Ankara in the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict and in isolation of Armenia
on Baku’s advice had its dirty effect, and Abdullah Gul’s visit to
Yerevan was not evidence of good life, just like the New-York meetings.

As we have previously mentioned, Turkey does not want to strain
relations with Armenia since the latter is in good terms with
Russia. And no matter how strongly Armenia opposes, Turkey, though
alongside with Iran, is the key country in the region. Perfectly
realizing the situation, the USA actively encourages Armenia to enter
into a dialogue with the Turkish Government. According to Professor
of Conflict Analysis and Resolution at George Mason University (USA)
Dennis J. D. Sandole, "Turkey and Armenia should look into the 1915
events and start building normal relations. In this case, Russia’s
influence on Armenia will weaken."

The anti-Russian rhetoric of the USA may spread over Armenia too,
resulting in the refusal of basic directions of the 10-year-old
foreign policy of Armenia, which, for years, has been attaching
great importance to international recognition of the Armenian
Genocide, as well as to the right of the Nagorno Karabakh people to
self-determination. And though the UN platform announces that this
can never happen, everything is possible in politics. Very often
spontaneous, all-economic interests (though obscure) prevail over
the national ones. And what is most interesting – during the latest
Armenian-Turkish talks the problem of recognition by Armenia of Turkish
borders has not been raised, at least publicly. Quite possibly this
issue will simply be buried and we shall have to forget about the
national security of the Armenian State for long.

The attempts to normalize relations with Armenia are treated rather
skeptically in Turkey. According to Turkish diplomat Murat Bilhan,
"Recent efforts to normalize relations between Turkey and neighboring
Armenia are a step in the right direction, but the process has
failed to produce any results other than a softening in the political
rhetoric. Armenia should be aware that this is a give-and-take process,
but it does not seem to be ready to give anything." However retired
Ambassador Murat Bilhan does not speak of Turkey’s unwillingness to
meet Armenia halfway, whereas one-sided compromise is impossible. In
all probability Armenian-Turkish talks will drag on like the process
of the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict regulation. However, in essence, both
problems are already solved: Nagorno Karabakh is not going to agree to
any condition, even under the pressure of the world community. But
the question is if Armenia will be able to resist the pressure,
for possession of the Caucasus is at stake.

From: Emil Lazarian | Ararat NewsPress