AZERBAIJAN: PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION CONCERNS
by Onnik Krikorian

Global Voices Online
Wednesday, October 1st, 2008 @ 06:11 UTC
MA

Following disputed presidential elections in Georgia and Armenia
earlier this year, as well as state of emergencies declared in Tbilisi
and Yerevan, all eyes are now on Azerbaijan as it prepares to go to
the polls. Few expect anything but a second term in office for the
incumbent, Ilham Aliyev, in the 15 October presidential election and
bloggers seem to agree.

Thoughts on the Road, for example, says that the vote is not so much
a contest, but more of a formality.

The election season has begun here – with posters […] plastered
on walls around the city. The posters remind me of those that I saw
in Russia before the election there, depicting "ordinary citizens"
who are apparently going to exercise their civic duty and go vote.

The president also has some posters up, just a photo of himself and
a short phrase that identifies himself as candidate. I haven’t seen
posters for any other candidates.

[…]

The last issue of Zerkalo carried on page two an article that
depicts the contrasting situations for the the New Azerbaijan Party
(the ruling party) and its opponents. YAP, as it is known from its
Azerbaijani initials, held its meeting in a stadium. Attending the
meeting thousands of government workers, who were essentially required
to attend.

The opponents of the governments, however, were only able to get
permission to meet at a remote location.

The View from Baku, however, reports that the situation is somewhat
better in the broadcast media with presidential debates being
aired each night. Nevertheless, the blog notes, that is not to say
the situation is to be welcomed, especially when the incumbent is
represented by a stand-in.

The Central Election Commission here in Baku mandated that candidates
be given three hours of debate time on television and, on alternating
days, three hours on radio. That’s six hours a week, every week,
until Election Day, October 15th! But to call it a "debate" is a
disservice to the word. […]

Each gets exactly 8 minutes and 35 seconds to speak his, or in the
case of the surrogate for the incumbent president, her mind. […]

A new blog established especially for the presidential election,
Azerbaijan’s Presidential Election, explains why there are concerns
about the likely conduct of the vote.

It is easy to say in the last election when Ilham Aliyev was elected
president, there was widespread fraud. When Haydar Aliyev was
elected president, he put his own family members into governmental
positions. So it was not surprised that after Haydar past away,
his son Ilham took power. Much of the public was not okay with this
because it was known that he was into gambling and drinking, rather
than running a country.

Fraud was noticed right for when citizens went to place their vote.

[…]

When the results were released, a war or coup did not occur, but
rather rallies so violent that there was physical brutality, arrests,
and death. On October 16, there were 15,000 opposition supporters
went face to face with 5,000 policemen, resulting in 5 deaths. […]

Quirk Global Strategies, the blog of a former head of the National
Democratic Institute (NDI) in Azerbaijan, apologizes to its readers
for not posting more about the election. However, it notes, there is
probably little point. The blog blames geopolitical interests in the
region for the situation.

I doubt anyone reads this blog anymore and it’s my fault. I really
should be posting on the Azerbaijan Presidential election because
there are few people there who were there in 2005 (just as there were
few there in 2005 who lived through 2003) and who can interpret the
spin that will emerge from both the USG and GovAZ. On the other hand,
the election matters not one bit and what anyone has to say about it
matters even less. There are forces at work in that country greater
than any of us.

Citing the failure of the West to prevent a short but devastating
war between Georgia and Russia, the blog concludes that unless the
international community changes its approach, trouble looms on the
horizon. The blog speculates that this might even include renewed
fighting between Azerbaijan and neighboring Armenia over the disputed
territory of Nagorno Karabakh.

I’m sure the "obsevers" in town for the "election" will put together
a thorough report that demonstrates how much better this election
was than the last one (that was our strategic objective in 2005, as
well). Everyone will point out how weak the opposition is and that
Aliyev would have won anyway and that he’s the best bet for regional
stability. Then, when Aliyev does something insane (a la Saakashvili,
and it doesn’t take much imagination to come up with insane moves he
might consider), or is overthrown by a gang of competing kleptocrats,
because U.S. "democracy support" programs in the Caucusus favor
personalities over institutions, everyone will panic.

In the meantime, it will be interesting to see how the Azerbaijani
blogosphere responds to the election. With blogging coming of age
in Armenia after its presidential election and in Georgia after
its war with Russia, the same might also be true for Azerbaijan. In
Armenia, blogs became the new samizdat, and that might also happen
in Azerbaijan too.