Forbes Magazine
Obama, Turkey And The G-Resolution
Asli Aydintasbas 09.29.08, 4:00 PM ET

There is no doubt that much of the Muslim world is rooting for Barack
Obama in the U.S. presidential race. The 47-year-old Illinois senator
is a favorite son to many in the Middle East who are enamored of his
middle name "Hussein" or even harbor the belief that the senator is a
closet Muslim having to hide his true colors to get a place in the
American political establishment. Still others welcome the idea of an
Obama presidency as a shift from the unpopular Middle East policies of
the Bush administration.

But here in Turkey, the Obamania in the rest of the Muslim world was
quick to fade early in the race. Once intrigued by the young senator
and his life story, much of the Ankara establishment and the Turkish
elite now say they prefer John McCain to snatch the presidential seat.

And all this has little to do with Barack Obama himself.

Modern Turkey is a nation still sorting through the cultural and
political clashes that have emerged with the foundation of a secular
modern republic from the ashes of the Ottoman Empire in 1923. It is a
nation accustomed to both domestic and foreign conflict and obsessed
with the idea of its loneliness on the world stage. So it is no
surprise that, on any given subject under the sun, most Turks would
ask, "But is it good for Turkey?"

In this case, the political establishment in Ankara and Turkey’s
secular elite seem to think that Barack Obama is not good for Turkey.

"It all has to do with the Armenian issue," a senior Turkish
politician tells me, referring to what is essentially a semantic
problem, but one with ripple effects far beyond the confines of this
region. Turks and Armenians have long disagreed on what to call the
tragic events that took place in the eastern provinces of the Ottoman
Empire in 1915. Turks say the forced deportations and massacres of
Christian Armenians took place in the context of a civil war and do
not amount to "genocide." For Armenians in the neighboring Armenia or
spread around the world in a large diaspora, this is the first
genocide of modern times and as such deserves a universal recognition.

What does all this have to do with Barack Obama? With almost no direct
contact, Turks and Armenians have long been fighting the issue out in
distant national forums–most notably in the U.S. Congress. Almost
every year, the powerful Armenian-American lobby attempts to pass a
resolution from Congress marking the events of 1915 as "genocide." The
government of Turkey has its own lobbying effort in Washington, almost
solely dedicated to the "Armenian issue," and prevents the bill at the
expense of threatening to sever strategic ties with the United
States. (Having seen Turkey significantly reduce economic and military
relations with France when the French Senate passed a similar bill,
Washington knows the issue goes far beyond a semantic exercise.)

Successive American presidents have intervened in the 11th hour to
kill off the g-resolution in order not to damage relations with a key
ally and next door neighbor of Iraq’s. Last year, House Speaker Nancy
Pelosi and other congressional supporters had to drop the resolution
at the last minute when the White House warned it would cripple ties
with Turkey and impact the war effort in Iraq.

Yet Barack Obama has pledged he would support a genocide resolution.
Worse for Ankara, his running mate Senator Joe Biden has long been an
ally of Greek and Armenian lobbies in Washington and sponsored bills
questioning Turkish policies on Cyprus and Armenia.

"John McCain on the other hand knows Turkey well and can understand
our strategic value," the same Turkish politician tells me. Ankara
essentially prefers a man who would have a nostalgic appreciation of
Turkey’s role in the Cold War and in containing Saddam Hussein, and
not push for a "paradigm change" in that equation.

"There is also the Clinton factor," a western diplomat notes. Most
Turks were enamored of Bill Clinton when he visited Turkey in the wake
of a major earthquake in 1999 and pushed for policies that elevated
the Turkish-U.S. relationship to a strategic partnership on energy
and regional issues.

Bill and Hillary Clinton have since visited Turkey and maintain ties
with the Turkish government. (Turkey’s prime minister, Tayyip Erdogan,
makes a point of seeing the former president or his wife on nearly all
his U.S. trips.)

"Obama defeating Hillary did not go down well here," says the diplomat.

When Turks watch the results of U.S. elections in November, they will
do with an eye toward April 16, the day Armenians commemorate what
Turkish officials call "the so-called genocide," and hope Obama will
not win.

Asli Aydintasbas is an Istanbul-based journalist and former Ankara
bureau chief of the newspaper Sabah.