ECONOMY OVERSHADOWS EX-SOVIET MEETING

AFP
October 8, 2008 – 3:36PM

Leaders of a Moscow-dominated group of post-Soviet states are in
Kyrgyzstan for talks overshadowed by worldwide financial turmoil and
Russia’s recent march into Georgia.

Russian President Dmitry Medvedev heads the list at the Commonwealth of
Independent States (CIS) meeting. Many of the 10 or so attendees are
torn between Russia and the West and the meeting agenda will focus on
"harmonic" economic cooperation, according to the Kyrgyz hosts.

Sceptics say that meetings of the CIS, a group created in 1991 on the
ashes of the Soviet Union, have long been staid affairs characterised
by perfunctory handshakes for the media and producing little of
concrete significance.

However they have also been a forum for talks on anything from Caspian
energy to growing Western influence and a simmering conflict between
Armenia and Azerbaijan – with differences sometimes springing into
the open.

"CIS summits were the only place for the leaders of Russia, Ukraine and
Georgia to peacefully discuss their differences," said Kazakhstan-based
analyst Eduard Poletayev, adding that Central Asian leaders were
likely to approach Russia with special caution after August’s war
between Russia and Georgia.

A factor limiting the potential for sparks to fly will be the absence
of Georgian President Mikheil Saakashvili, who announced before a
crowd on August 12: "We have taken a decision: Georgia is quitting
the CIS…. Soviet Union, goodbye forever!"

With that announcement, CIS membership dropped from 12 to 11 ex-Soviet
republics.

A question mark remained over the attendance of Saakashvili’s
pro-Western ally President Viktor Yushchenko of Ukraine, after the
Georgian president urged other CIS states to follow his lead.

The run-up to the summit has seen a flurry of US diplomatic visits
to energy-rich southern neighbours of Russia, with US Secretary of
State Condoleezza Rice urging Kazakhstan’s leader on Sunday to help
regeneration of war-torn Afghanistan, where Moscow long ago ceded
the lead role to Washington.

The host, Kyrgyzstan, exemplifies the tensions at play, as it is home
to both Russian and US military bases, the US presence having come
in for periodic Russian criticism.

Poletayev, who edits the regional affairs journal Mir v Azii, said
he saw little chance of a wave of leaders following Russia’s lead
and coming out to recognise the independence of two Georgian rebel
regions that Moscow recognised as independent after the August war.

Belarus, which has a "union state" agreement with Russia, has come
under particular pressure but has deferred the issue until the opening
of a new parliament session later this month.

The war in Georgia, in which Russia presented its intervention as
defending Russian citizens, "made Central Asian leaders understand
(Russia’s) revival continues and they must express their love and
friendship", said Poletayev, adding however he doubted this meant a
real loss of Western influence.

For Yevgeny Volk, head of the Moscow office of the US Heritage
Foundation, this week’s free-fall on the Russian stock market is
further proof that Moscow’s bark is worse than its bite, something
he says neighbours will understand.

"On the surface we see there’s a great degree of warmth and friendship
but the deep interests of these nations differ greatly from Russia’s,"
said Volk.

"The economic crisis we’re now facing certainly has delivered a very
serious blow to the myth of Russian strength," he said.

Medvedev is due in the Kyrgyz capital Bishkek on Thursday.