GEORGIA IS ON THE VERGE OF PARTITION BY "HISTORICAL BORDERS"
Karine Ter-Sahakyan

PanARMENIAN.Net
07.10.2008 GMT+04:00

In fact what we have now is a totally new Georgia. If we trace the
country’s development since 1991 it becomes clear that Tbilisi has
been experiencing nothing but losses.

As a rule, misinformation is spread with the particular aim of
exploring circumstances, shaping a certain public opinion, and if
everything goes according to the plan, information proves to be
true. Another advantage of misinformation is anonymity, which under
certain conditions may turn into an alibi: we never said it and we
know nothing… There was an information leak the other day. If we
trust Turkish and Azerbaijani informative sources, Baku and Ankara are
going to stiffen pressure on Georgia in order to achieve federalization
of the country.

/PanARMENIAN.Net/ Thus, Turkey is determined to split up Georgia,
leaving her with only historical regions (Kartli, Shida Kartli (Gori)
and Kakheti), which in 1783 were placed under the Russian patronage
according to the Treaty of Georgievsk. The rest, i.e. independent
Ajaria, Azerbaijani Kvemo-Kartli (Borchali) and the Turk-Meskhets will
be distributed "by rights". It is obvious that under such distribution
Javakhk may pass to Armenia, if the sides come to an agreement.

As Turk diplomats claim such federation would be the only guarantee
for preservation of Georgia’s territorial integrity. But the question
is which Georgia we mean – present Georgia, the Soviet Socialist
Republic of Georgia or the Georgia of 1918. There is an impression
that the term "territorial integrity" has turned into a song which
is sung throughout the world in or out of place.

Nevertheless, talks on Georgia’s partition are already in circulation
and it is not difficult to foresee Georgia’s future, especially in case
President Saakashvili decides on another reckless military attempt,
like the August operation, which, by the way, is quite probable on the
eve of the US Presidential Elections… But who will serve as an object
for "recovering the constitutional order" this time? It can hardly be
Javakhk, as in this case Turkey’s intervention would be inevitable,
whereas in all probability Saakashvili would be reluctant to strain
relations with Turkey. The latter is a member of NATO and can simply
block Georgia’s getting a Membership Action Plan (MAP). Thus, the
Georgian President dug his own hole, where he can hardly manage to
rise from. The spasmodic attempts to call the West and especially the
United States for help are like a voice crying in the wilderness. The
world is busy with the financial crisis and Georgia’s problems do
not worry it much. However, Tbilisi is reluctant to understand it.

In fact what we have now is a totally new Georgia. If we trace the
country’s development since 1991, i.e. after the USSR breakdown,
it becomes clear that Tbilisi has been experiencing nothing but
losses. Zviad Gamsakhurdia, the First President of the Republic of
Georgia, led the country into the chaos of the Civil War, losing
Abkhazia. During the reign of Eduard Shevardnadze Ajaria was actually
an independent region, which only Mikhail Saakashvili was able to
return to Georgia. Now Georgia has lost South Ossetia and, finally,
Abkhazia.

Separatist tendencies that exist in the republics of the former USSR
once more underline the illogical and inaccurate division of borders,
fixed before the World War II. By the way the republics, whose borders
are more or less accurate, do not face conflicts, Armenia being among
them. On the other hand it is rather inappropriate to speak of the
"accuracy" of borders, as the current world map gives too broad
interpretations on the precision of this or that border…

Concerning Georgia there is also another consideration that
prevails over all others. It is the transportation of energy
resources. Unfortunately Mikhail Saakashvili used to believe
that without him oil would never get to Europe. However, with the
beginning of the military operations in South Ossetia, Turkey and
Azerbaijan ceased to trust Tbilisi, considering that unruly Mikhail
Saakashvili might put at stake the normal functioning of oil-pipeline
Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan and gas-line Baku-Tbilisi-Erzerum. After all,
the above-mentioned pipelines both pass through Ajaria, Kvemo-Kartli
and Samtskhe-Javakheti. Thus, the major war in the Caucasus is still
ahead. And if we also take into account the fact that together with
Turkey Russia is rapidly increasing its presence in the Caucasus,
Administration of the future US President is going to face great
difficulties.

Meanwhile, RF Foreign Ministry declares that Georgia is trying to
launch another war in the Caucasus. The reason for this declaration
has been a number of terrorist acts in the territory of Abkhazia and
South Ossetia, as well as in the buffer zone of these republics. RF
Foreign Ministry Department of Information and Press states: "There is
an impression that certain powers in Tbilisi are consciously straining
the situation in the region and are trying to provoke new military
operations through a series of terrorist acts".