AS TALKS WITH AZERIS/TURKS FALTER, ARMENIA EXPANDS ACCESS TO GEORGIA/IRAN
By Harut Sassounian

AZG Armenian Daily
11/10/2008

Regional

The budding relationship between Armenia and Turkey, which started
with last month’s "football diplomacy" with much fanfare and high
expectations , is facing serious difficulties.

While no one expected a quick resolution of the long-standing issues
stemming from the Genocide and its persistent denial by Turkey,
few anticipated that the nascent rapprochement would falter so quickly.

After a very friendly and hopeful first meeting between the presidents
and foreign ministers of Armenia and Turkey, occasioned by the
unprecedented soccer match between their national teams on September
6 in Yerevan, it appears that the Artsakh (Karabagh) conflict is the
main reason for the sudden rift.

To begin with, it was strange that the presidents of Armenia and
Turkey did not hold a follow-up meeting during their attendance of the
U.N. General Assembly sessions in New York in late September. When
Pres. Gul was asked by Turkish journalists why no meeting was
scheduled with the Armenian President, he first said he was not aware
that Pres. Sargsyan was coming to New York and then assured them
that they would run into each other during one of many diplomatic
receptions. Despite such optimistic talk, the two presidents never
meet. They may have been waiting for the outcome of discussions
between the foreign ministers of Armenia, Azerbaijan and Turkey who
met on the last day of their stay in New York.

On September 28, two days after Pres. Sargsyan left New Yor k, he
told reporters that there were "no concrete results yet" from the
foreign ministers’ meeting and that he had not expected much from
their encounter.

On the same day, Pres. Gul confirmed that there had not been
any significant movement to merit the lifting of the blockade of
Armenia. Taking a tough stand , he told a Turkish group that "no
talks on border opening are possible before Armenia’s liberation of
Azerbaijani territories," according to the AzeriTaj news agency. Thus,
Pres. Gul was reverting to Turkey’s previous preconditions that had
been long rejected by the Armenian side. A senior aide to Azerbaijan’s
president, in his turn, confirmed this week that several serious
issues remain unresolved on the Artsakh issue.

Ankara and Baku assumed that since the Georgian-Russian conflict had
temporarily deprived Armenia of the opportunity to import more than
70% of its vital supplies from Georgia’s Black Sea ports, this was
the ideal time to force Yerevan into making serious concessions on
the Genocide issue and the Artsakh conflict.

Whether it was coincidence or not, several major initiatives announced
by Pres. Sargsyan last week had the effect of countering the hard-line
taken by Ankara and Baku in their recent negotiations with Armenia,
and dispelling the false impression that Yerevan is desperately
seeking to reopen the border with Turkey at any cost.

Pres. Sargsyan announced during his last week’s visit to Tbilisi that
he had reached an agreement with Pres. Saakashvili to jointly build
a modern highway that would considerably shorten the transport time
between the Georgian Port of Batumi and Yerevan.

In a nationally televised speech delivered for the first time in
the Armenian Parliament — akin to the State of the Union address
by American presidents before the U.S. Congress — Pres. Sargsyan
announced that a new railway would be constructed to link Iran with
Armenia, to facilitate and expand trade between the two countries. He
also said that Armenia would build a new nuclear power plant to ensure
that the country remains energy self-sufficient when its aging plant
is shut down. Finally, he stated that a Pan-Armenian Bank and an
investment fund would be established in Yerevan to finance these
projects. He said that these "large and daring initiatives" would
solve Armenia’s important strategic and economic problems.

Along with these major programs, Armenia just formed a new Diaspora
Ministry to streamline and strengthen its relations with millions of
Armenians living abroad. On September 24, during a major banquet in
New York, Pres. Sargsyan gave the 700 Armenian guests an uplifting
message of unity, urging them to join forces for the betterment of
Armenia and the Diaspora. He also thanked all those assisting in the
resolution of the Artsakh conflict, "the condemnation of the Armenian
Genocide, and the restoration of historical justice."

These new initiatives are bound to improve Armenia’s bargaining hand
and help negotiate with Turkey and Azerbaijan from a position of
strength. The expansion of Armenia’s alternate land routes through
Georgia and Iran would considerably diminish the utility of opening
the border with Turkey and circumvent more effectively the blockades
imposed by Ankara and Baku.

While Armenian officials do want to improve relations with all of
their neighbors, they are not so desperate as to make unacceptable
concessions on the Genocide and Artsakh issues.