IMF FORECASTS GRADUAL SLOWDOWN IN ARMENIA’S ECONOMIC GROWTH
ARKA
Oct 10, 2008
YEREVAN, October 10. /ARKA/. International Monetary Fund forecasts
a gradual slowdown in Armenia’s economic growth from ten percent in
2008 to eight percent in 2009 and six percent in 2013.
In its world economy review, the IMF predicts slowdown in GDP growth
from 7.25% this year to 5.75% in Commonwealth of Independent States
in 2009.
The IMF experts think that GDP growth in CIS will slow down because
of reduction in outside demand and pressure of financial markets.
The fastest economic growth is expected in Azerbaijan – 16% in 2008
and 16.4% in 2009.
Georgia’s GDP is expected to grow 3.5% in 2008 and 4% in 2009.
Kazakhstan’s GDP will grow 4.5% in 2008 and 5.3% in 2009.
GDP is predicted to grow 7.5% and 6.7% in Kyrgyzstan in these two
years, 6.5% in Moldova both in 2008 and 2009, 6% and 7% in Tajikistan,
10.8% and 10.3% in Turkmenistan.
Ukraine will face 6.4% GDP growth in 2008 and 2.5% in 2009, Uzbekistan
8% and 7.5% and Russia 7% and 5.5%.
Baltic countries will face following trends – Latvia will record 0.9%
economic decline in 2008 and 2.2% in 2009, Estonia will record 1.5%
decline in 2008 and 0.5% growth in 2009 and Lithuania 3.9% and 0.7%
growth.
The IMF says in its report that after several years of vigorous growth,
the world economic growth slowed sown precipitously (ch apters 1
and 2).
Global activity is under intense pressure of financial shock and high
prices for energy and other stock commodities.
Many countries with developed economies are close to recession or
have already plunged into recession.
Emerging economies face growth slowdown as well.
The IMF experts say that global economy faces considerable decline
amid the most dangerous financial crisis on developed financial
markets since 1930s.
They say that despite obscure situation, economic growth expectations
for 2009 reduced to 0.3% – the record low since 2002.
According to the IMF report, the United States’ economy will grow 1.6%
in 2008 and 0.1% in 2009.
Similar things are expected in Europe – 1.3% in 2008 and 0.2% in 2009.
Despite slowdown in economic growth in developing countries, it
is still expected that these countries will create some factor of
stability thanks to fast productivity growth and the strengthening
of economic policy basis.
However, the longer the crisis lasts the higher the probability of
impact on these countries is.
Developed countries should focus their macroeconomic policies on
supporting activity to help break negative feedback between conditions
in real and financial sectors. These countries should do it with
taking into consideration inflation risks.
Top-priority focuses of various emerging countries’ macroeconomic
policies differ from each other, since decision-making agencies are
trying to balance their ideas on economic growth and inflation risks.
The IMF thinks that developing countries are in more advantageous
situation, compared with past years.
However, these measures are hardly to produce effect, if sustainability
of the system is not ensured and these steps are not timely and
well-targeted.