OIL DETERMINES "STRATEGIC ALLIES"
Karine Ter-Sahakyan

PanARMENIAN.Net
09.10.2008 GMT+04:00

For the second time throughout its history Nagorno Karabakh found
itself a hostage in the clutches of the Caspian oil, and it is quite
natural that present Russian Government shouldn’t act against its
interests.

The latest interview of RF Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov seems to have
sobered up part of the Armenian society, who still cherished hopes
for a fair settlement of the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict with the help
of Russia. Moreover, the RF Foreign Minister made it blunt-clear that
regulation is practically impossible without Turkey’s assistance. In
the light of the latest regional events Lavrov’s statements are quite
explicable: cunning as the high-ranking diplomat may be, Russia did
not aim to protect residents of South Ossetia, but restored its power
in the Caucasus.

/PanARMENIAN.Net/ "In reality there are few geographical and
political ways out. As soon as the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict is
settled, Turkey will be willing to help Armenia to set up normal
ties with the external world, naturally through establishment of
official, diplomatic relations between Ankara and Yerevan. Still
before the Caucasus crisis there appeared a good chance to advance
in the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict regulation through direct meetings
between the Presidents of Armenia and Azerbaijan with assistance of
mediators, the so-called Co-chairs of the OSCE Minsk Group: Russia,
France and the United States. There has been developed a substantial
document including almost all settlement principles and mechanisms,"
Lavrov stated.

Most interesting in the above citation is the phrase Â"the so-called
Co-chairsÂ". Indeed, the OSCE Minsk Group has long ceased to be a
regulating mechanism, and it is quite sorrowful that Armenia was the
last to realize it. When Baku first spoke of changing the format
of negotiations Armenian diplomats and politicians persistently
convinced their people or even themselves that such an approach was
erroneous. However, time showed that Yerevan was rather mistaken
setting hopes on her Â"strategic allyÂ". Thereupon, it would be
appropriate to repeat Lavrov’s statement claiming that stability
of Azerbaijan is the guarantee of stability of the whole region. No
wonder! For the second time throughout its history Nagorno Karabakh
found itself a hostage in the clutches of the Caspian oil, and it is
quite natural that present Russian Government shouldn’t act against
its interests. Back in 1918 the Bolsheviks needed oil for fighting
against the whole world, and now, 90 years later, we face the same
situation. What we’ll be faced with next is not a difficult guess: a
second Moscow Treaty and move on through history! Meanwhile Azerbaijan
is successfully flaunting its energy resources, achieving prosperity
and political power in the world, as well as obtaining instruments for
exerting pressure on the basic participants of the Nagorno-Karabakh
conflict regulation process.

"Armenia is, in fact, blocked due to the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict; it
has great difficulties in communicating with the external world. Thus,
it should be in the vital interests of Armenian people to find a
soonest solution to the problem. Turkish stirring up in the region is
obviously connected with the abrupt intensification of geopolitical
consequences of the Caucasus crisis," assures Lavrov.

Even without the Georgian-Ossetian-Russian conflict, the USA and
Russia would enter into a war in the Caucasus territory, the Caspian
energy resources being the cause of it. By the way the Karabakh
variant would be quite probable too. Just in this case the war
would have an unpredictable result and would evidently end to the
detriment of the world powers. In the light of the world financial
crisis and collapse of oil price, the region is gaining special
geopolitical significance. There is absolutely no doubt that the
Azerbaijani Presidential Elections will be recognized democratic,
even if they end up with a mass scuffle in the center of Baku, and
Ilham Aliyev will be the security guarantor of the present and future
oil-pipelines for another 5 years. Domination in the region would
actually mean control over oil and gas, which, under the scenario of
Baku, are the main trump cards of Azerbaijan in the process of the
Nagorno-Karabakh conflict settlement.

However, this proves to be the scenario of the OSCE Minsk Group too,
as there can be given no other interpretation to Mathew Bryza’s
statement to the BBC Russian Service. "The principle of territorial
integrity of Azerbaijan is a basis in the resolution of the Karabakh
conflict," he said. Quite probably France will soon make a statement
too. According to Baku experts the outcome of the Nagorno-Karabakh
conflict depends on the ways of exporting the Azerbaijani oil and
gas. All the countries, especially the potential mediators in the
Nagorno-Karabakh conflict, which, by the way, grew more in number
than ever, are diverging from their own interests, initially from
economic ones. "Our oil is a delicious tidbit, that irresistibly
attracts nations making them forget even about Â"strategic alliesÂ"",
considers Baku and she is right…

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