IS RUSSIA ESTABLISHING A NEW MILITARY BASE IN AZERBAIJAN
by Casur Sumarinli

Ayna
Sept 13 2008
Azerbaijan

The Kremlin drawing up new military plans about Azerbaijan. The format
of negotiations over the Qabala radar station changes

There have been noteworthy aspects in Russia’s political and military
priorities in the South Caucasus after the Georgian events. The
Kremlin has an intention of promoting its political and military
interests in another South Caucasus country after Georgia.

Ayna received exclusive information from a source close to the
Russian Defence Ministry that the Kremlin considers ways of including
Azerbaijan into Moscow’s sphere of political and military influence
along with Georgia.

Now Russian strategists think of three major objectives

First, to closely participate in Azerbaijan’s economy and impact
Azerbaijan’s increasing role in regional economic projects; second,
the possibility of restoring Russian military presence in Azerbaijan;
third, to protect Moscow’s dominant role in negotiations over the
Caspian security.

The Russian Defence Ministry is working now on ways of restoring
Moscow’s military presence in Azerbaijan, Ayna has learnt. The Kremlin
considers several points to this end. Russian military circles
think that though minor, there is a Russian military presence in
Azerbaijan. This is approximately 4,000 Russian armed forces personnel
serving at the Qabala radar station.

Information we have received is shocking. The Russian military
leadership’s plans in these reports attract attention. We present
to your attention the following unconfirmed by Azerbaijani and
Russian officials. This information foresees expansion of the
Russian-Azerbaijani political and military negotiations during
next months:

First, the sides are to accept Russia’s role as a leading arbiter in
negotiations over the Karabakh problem;

Second, the postponement of the US-Russia-Azerbaijani talks over the
Qabala analytical-information centre (The Russian Defence Ministry’s
military base No 03366) that has been leased from Azerbaijan for
10 years. Instead, negotiations are to be continued in the format
of bilateral Russian-Azerbaijani negotiations. The purpose is to
prolong the lease term of the Qabala station and increase the number
of the Russian military personnel in Qabala and establish a real
military base.

Third, to intensify the military, energy, political and security
talks between Russia and Azerbaijan and put them into concrete frames
(obviously, Moscow will try to copy the format of the existing
cooperation between the USA and Azerbaijan);

Fourth, to intensify negotiations between Russia and Azerbaijan over
the security in the Caspian Sea;

Fifth, Russia’s active support to Azerbaijan over training of military
officers;

Sixth, Russia’s close involvement in forming and developing
Azerbaijan’s strategy and military infrastructure and Moscow’s
intensive support to the Azerbaijani armed forces, (in particular,
the anti-aircraft defence, the Air Forces and the Naval Forces). We
should note that when the contract on the status of Qabala radar
station was signed in 2002, Russia pledged to assist Azerbaijan
to upgrade the Air Forces and the Anti-Aircraft Forces, to train
Azerbaijani military personnel in Russia, to help with the repairs
of military equipment and these all were included in the agreement.

Seventh, to closely participate in drafting documents related to
security sphere (in particular, the National Security Concept, the
Military Doctrine and the Strategic Defence Review).

Eighth, to establish a political and military cooperation format
between Russia and Azerbaijan within the framework of the Collective
Security Treaty Organization (CSTO). This will resemble NATO’s
Partnership for Peace programme established by the alliance with
partner countries. Moscow may raise the issue of membership of
post-Soviet countries as well as other states in the region and
worldwide which seek political and military cooperation with Russia,
(Iran, Syria, Lebanon, Cuba, Bolivia, Venezuela and Nicaragua).

CSTO versus NATO?

We should say that after the 8 August events there have been statements
and official opinions that the CSTO has emerged as an alternative
force against NATO. The Russian and world press consider the final
form of the CSTO as "cloning" of the North Atlantic Treaty. According
to an agreement reached at the latest summit, the CSTO will establish
a permanent headquarters in Moscow. According to one of the signed
agreements, if a CSTO member country is subjected to an aggression,
troops of the alliance help it at request;

Ninth, to convince the public opinion in Azerbaijan that the country’s
security can be secured in cooperation with Russia and work closely
with civil societies to this end. In this respect, to establish close
relations with Azerbaijani NGOs and the media.

Official Baku is already aware that Russia has military plans about
Azerbaijan. According to Azerbaijani experts, the latest processes
show the Azerbaijani leadership is in a difficult position. It is not
easy indeed to change the strategic policy that was declared in 1992.

Many people have considered yesterday’s event ordinary. The issue
in question is the appointment of a new military attache. The
Russian Defence Ministry appointed its new military attache to
Azerbaijan. Captain First Rank Aleksey Moiseyev has served in Russia’s
Northern Fleet before his appointment to Baku. Experts think that the
Kremlin gives a start to promotion of Russia’s military interests
in Azerbaijan, particularly on the Caspian basin. Experts consider
Russia’s military plans on Azerbaijan as very dangerous. They are
particularly concerned over transformation of the Qabala radar station
into a military base. Observers consider that restoration of Russia’s
military presence in Azerbaijan will become a serious threat to our
country’s independence and territorial integrity.

By the way, the CSTO led by Russia plans to establish a huge military
unit in the Central Asia. This formation will consist of Russian,
Kazakh, Uzbek, Tajik and Kyrgyz military units, the CSTO’s Secretary
General, Nikolay Bordyuzha, has said this. According to him, the
decision to strengthen the military composition of the CSTO was
adopted at the recent summit in Moscow.

Bordyuzha has stated that the military unit will protest stability
in the region. "This formation should repel all potential threats to
sovereignty of our states," stated Bordyuzha, saying that the CSTO will
deploy a rapid reaction forces consisting of ten battalions. According
to Secretary General, a joint anti-aircraft defence forces will also
be established.

Bordyuzha has said that the CSTO members will expand military
trainings. The next training will be held at the end of September in
Kazakhstan. Bordyuzha has stated that Russia will expand privileged
military aid and sales of weapons to the CSTO members.