RUSSIA, U.S. COMPETE FOR RESOLUTION OF AZERBAIJAN-ARMENIA CONFLICT OVER NAGORNO-KARABAKH
by Natalia Leshchenko
World Markets Research Centre
Global Insight
October 6, 2008
Russia’s Minister of Foreign Affairs Sergei Lavrov has announced
a substantial breakthrough in Armenia-Azerbaijan talks over the
regulation in Nagorno-Karabakh after a meeting with Armenian President
Serzh Sargsyan. At the same time, Turkey has mediated a meeting
between the contending sides on the sidelines of the UN General
Assembly, and Iran has officially offered its help in resolving the
conflict. The United States is maintaining an active involvement in
the process as well, with Vice-President Dick Cheney visiting Baku,
followed by a number of lower-ranking officials.
Significance:Talks over the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict, frozen for over
15 years, have intensified recently as Russia and the United States
have increased their competition for influence in the Caucasus. The
United States is hoping to resolve the conflict by attracting Armenia
to the Nabucco gas pipeline project, of which Azerbaijan is currently a
pinnacle. Russia, on its part, is seeking a solution through bringing
a regional dimension to the conflict, drawing Turkey and Iran in. At
the September UN meeting, the Turkish Foreign Minister Ali Babacan
reportedly proposed to his Azerbaijani and Armenian counterparts to
create a new regional organisation that would include the three South
Caucasus states as well as Russia and Turkey, the purported Caucasus
Cooperation and Stability Platform. Both Armenian and Azerbaijan keep
finding faults with both resolution plans, wary and suspicious of each
other as always, but the intense international pressure from both
Russia and its allies, and the United States, will make them take
a decision sooner rather than later. The future of energy projects
and regional cooperation is at stake, and some breakthrough is to
be expected, with Russia in our opinion having more sway over the
leadership of the countries concerned.