THE CHILDISH GAMES OF THE OPPOSITION
Lilit Poghosyan
Hayots Ashkhar Daily
14 Oct 2008
Armenia
You Can’t Come To Power By Playing Mom-Dad
Director of the independent center of sociological studies "Sociometer"
Aharon Adibekyan responds our questions.
"It is too early to speak about colored or flowered revolutions in
Armenia during the coming 1-2 years. Because there are no objective
reasons for that. No matter how some try to operate the subjective
reasons, to create tension by means of provocative actions, they have
always failed in it and will always fail. Anyhow there are certain
objective problems around which the developments can theoretically
serve as a signal for similar manifestations.
The first one is the settlement of Karabakh conflict, which, in the
context of the general regional developments, can be the only realistic
solution to the created situation. As you know politics is the art of
possibility. Which means the solution can be on the plane of mutual
concessions and pragmatism other than false dreams and illusion,
which leads to a deadlock.
If in the near future the two sides reach an agreement a question
will naturally come out, to what extent is that mutual concession
acceptable for society. Considering the fact that Serge Sargsyan,
the bearer of the top power in the country has direct connection with
the heated Karabakh struggle and has taken ma ny important decisions,
the stance of Karabakh people will be more essential. If the proposed
settlement gives rise to serious counteraction in Karabakh this fire
can shift to Armenia.
The second pivotal issue is to what extent can the government manage
to fulfill their promises. Which means – to improve the country’s
economic situation, to raise the incomes of those who are nourished
from the budget – the salaries of the state employees, the pensions,
and allowances, to fight corruption and shadow. Thus creating favorable
conditions for the flow of investments."
"What do you think the radical society must do? To wait until the
social-economic sphere deteriorates? Or to wait until we reach an
imposed "agreement" in Karabakh issue?"
"The best thing that they can do is to raise their own authority. For
example they can have a role in the same Public Council. Secondly
they can be active in the elections of Self Governmental Bodies. The
European experience displays that if the opposition has really got
a potential and authority they must try to be a success at list on
this plane, to convince their electorate that they have certain weight.
Thirdly, they must shift from the field of total rejection into the
constructive one. In our case the activity of the radical opposition
reminds of childish games – "give back my toys otherwise I will
not p lay with you", or "if I’m not the "dad" I will not play with
you". This is not constructive."
"Ter-Petrosyan promised to "sincerely" introduce the future tactics and
strategy of the "movement" during the forthcoming meeting. Do you think
the revolutionary activists will hear something new from their leader?"
"It is the most primitive form of street democracy. Levon Ter-Petrosyan
is well aware that similar things are usually done during inter-party
or "group" negotiations, rather than meetings. In such cases they
must organize discussions, appear with their personal approaches
and programs, "make an inventory" of their personal powers and
opportunities. It must be done behind the closed doors, around the
negotiation tables. In case of reaching an agreement they elaborate
a united platform and a program of joint actions, after which they
can address the public and introduce their strategy and tactics. In
this case we haven’t got such example. Our opposition continues to
hold demonstrations, firstly on advocacy purposes.
Secondly it is a function aimed at demonstrating to overseas that we
are here and we will continue our struggle. Similar mode of action
hasn’t brought anyone to power.
Armenia is not the country of colored or flowered revolutions. We
lack lots of preconditions for that and the preconditions become le
sser and lesser.
Ter-Petrosyan must know from his own experience that in our
reality the power reproduces itself from inside, because once their
companions-in-arm other than the street opposition have seized power
from them. And if they want to come to power by means of a coup d’état
they must become part of them. How to do that? This is another topic."
–Boundary_(ID_FzXd/2B2h1vB9a9w0tagA A)–