TURKEY MAY IN FACT BECOME A REGIONAL POWER THROUGH THE UNSC
Karine Ter-Sahakyan
PanARMENIAN.Net
14.10.2008 GMT+04:00
The vacant seat of the United Nations Security Council (UNSC)
non-permanent member is meant for a European country, a position
Turkey can be considered to hold with great reserve.
Ankara has rather definitely realized that the way to a regional
power passes not only through cooperation with regional states and
a convenient transit for exporting hydrocarbon, but also through
membership in the UNSC. Somehow it so happened that the "five-day war"
of Mikhail Saakashvili proved to be most advantageous for Turkey, and,
as a result, it can now run for a seat in the UN. The United Nations
has been making hardly any decision recently, and even if it made,
its decisions were all based on strange interpretations of basic
principles of the international law.
/PanARMENIAN.Net/ However, it is of no significance. The leading role
in the UNSC is played by Russia and the United States. Turkey holds
normal relations with both of these world powers and, who knows,
it may establish such relations with China and France as well. Great
Britain is, naturally, not counted as it is accurately moving through
the course of American interests. According to Turkish Foreign Minister
Ali Babacan Turkey deserves a UNSC seat, which comes to a vote on
October 17. "Ankara’s growing influence on international affairs gives
it a basis to calculate on a seat among the non-permanent members of
the UNSC," considers Babacan and, on the whole, he is right.
This process started still back in 2004. The site Turkish Policy
Quarterly (TPQ) was opened then, which was called to report to
politicians and diplomats the viewpoint of Ankara on different
matters of world politics. A similar purpose serves also the site
TurkishNY.com. However, in all probability, a leading role in this
process is played by the Israeli lobby in the USA, which badly
needs Turkish membership in the UN for the mere purpose of adopting
pro-Israeli resolutions.
With present state of affairs it is of utmost interest how the
permanent members of the UN Security Council will vote. The
United States and Great Britain will naturally vote "for", while
the standpoint of China and France is still in question. However,
skillful propaganda can have positive results. As for Russia, taking
into consideration the latest events in the Caucasus and its sudden
Â"affectionÂ" towards Turkey, there must be no doubt that the Russian
representative will vote "for" too, especially when almost all the
transit pipelines from Moscow to Europe have some connection with
Turkey. Here is the latest example: Russian company "Stroytransgas"
has signed a contract on constructing a pipeline from Aleppo in the
north of Syria to the Turkish coast. The deal will cost US$71 million,
the pipeline length being 62 kilometers. Thus, Turkey has more chances
against the other candidates – Austria and Iceland. However, there
is a delicate point here: the vacant seat of the UNSC non-permanent
member is meant for a European country, a position Turkey can be
considered to hold with great reserve. Anyway, for the last 30 years
the world community seems to have been indifferent towards such kind
of geographical "trifles"… By the way in two years’ time, which
is the term of service of non-permanent members of the UNSC, it is
possible to accomplish what one could not achieve through lobbying
in the corridors of the Organization.
And what will Armenia be faced with in case the situation has a
positive outcome for Turkey? In all probability we shall face nothing
good: the Turkish representative will push forward Azerbaijan’s
resolutions on "regulating" the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict, which, in
such state of affairs, will be definitely passed. Naturally, at first
no one will pay attention to these resolutions, but it will be only
for the time being until the X hour arrives and the mediators decide
that Nagorno Karabakh is a part of Azerbaijan and try to bring the
Karabakh people back under Baku’s control with the proved method of
twisting arms. And what will be afterwards? Definitely there will be
a new war, but whether it will end up with a contract between Nagorno
Karabakh and Azerbaijan or whether Yerevan will urge Stepanakert to
yield to the world community, in this case to Azerbaijan is still a
question. As for the international recognition of the Armenian Genocide
(by calling it "international" we still mean Turkey first of all),
Ankara will have an opportunity to openly speak against any case of
mentioning the events of 1915 in the UNSC documents. In any case,
the weakness of Armenian diplomacy in the UN will once more be an
evident and grievous fact.
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