NO SERIOUS GROUNDS FOR ANXIETY
Armen Tsatouryan

Hayots Ashkhar Daily
16 Oct 2008
Armenia

The fate of Karabakh is in our hands

After the Russian-Georgian armed conflict, the discussions over the
Karabakh issue are beginning to find a stormy response in the internal
political life of Armenia.

The fact that our society displays certain anxiety over the prospects
of the speedy settlement of the Karabakh conflict is not only a
natural but also, to a certain extent, an encouraging signal. This
means that despite the big and small problems faced by the country,
our political forces and citizens have not ceased to be vigilant.

However, when attempts are being made to change such concerns into
mutual accusations and anxiety, the following question comes up:
who are we afraid of so much and why?

In this respect, we can point out three main reasons giving rise
to concerns;

The first reason consists in the far-reaching geo-political predictions
from the Russian-Georgian mutual cooperation, a tendency observed
in the south Caucasus, and the pessimistic approach of "calculating"
the possibility of "ceding" Karabakh to Azerbaijan.

The second is the myth on the continuous weakening of our country’s
positions on the international arena. The achievements continuously
voiced by Baku give way to far-reaching conclusions.

The third is our opposition’s anxiety over some se cret intrigues
allegedly prepared by the Armenian authorities with regard to the
solution of the Karabakh issue.

Let’s try to analyze the above-mentioned options one by one and discuss
the possibility of the impending dangers to our country and society.

The concerns over the existence of the first danger derive from the
theoretical possibility that Russia and Turkey’s current efforts
towards finding a united model of mutual cooperation in the South
Caucasus may have far-reaching strategic consequences. That is, Turkey
will renounce its mutual strategic cooperation with the United States,
quit its membership in NATO and become Russia’s ally.

Before all that, the strengthening of Turkey’s positions in the
South Caucuses will lead to NATO’s progress. Therefore, the mutual
cooperation between Russia and Turkey cannot contain serious threats
to Armenia unless the South Caucasian "bait" pointed to Turkey by
Russia leads to relevant "consequences".

Moreover, the use of unilateral pressures upon Armenia may also create
threats in terms of changing our country’s political vectors. After
all, not succeeding in its efforts to win round Turkey and to
strengthen its positions in Azerbaijan, Russia may lose Armenia as
well. After losing control over Georgia, this prospect becomes so
realistic for Russia that it will have to restrict itself only to
diplomatic pressures against Azerbaijan a nd Armenia until Turkey
clarifies its priorities in the sphere of foreign policy.

As regards the third danger, the rumors in this connection have been so
far based upon the calculations of the millions of oil dollars invested
by Azerbaijan in the military sphere. With those tremendous sums, which
last year increased to 1.85 billion US dollars, Baku mainly purchased
a large quantity of armament from Ukraine. It should be mentioned,
however, that it was obsolete armament produced in the Soviet times.

Having wasted huge amounts of money, Azerbaijan has now become faced
with the threat of cutting down its oil-gas programs. The reason is
that the country’s economy, which receives 70 percent of its income
from the oil business, has started suffering significant losses. Baku
will not manage to increase its oil export volumes and receive foreign
loans, considering the deep financial crisis on the global level. And
even the Azerbaijani experts themselves confess that.

So, the Azeri President’s dreams about having a 2.5 dollars’ military
budget in 2009 have already fallen flat.

Moreover, the obsolete armament, mainly purchased from Ukraine, has
become a calamity for the Azerbaijani army over the recent years. The
crash of the MIG-29 airplane in Baku was followed by the explosion of
the T-72 tank in Nakhichevan (on the 24th of September). And during
the recent military trainings organized not very far from the=2
0town of Shamkhor, there occurred the explosion of the infantry car,
depriving three more soldiers of their lives.

Considering the deadly nature of the armament with which the
Azerbaijani army is equipped now, it is hardly possible to expect
from it any serious threat.

As to the third variant, i.e. the so-called intrigues, it should be
noted that the opposition which pushes forward this issue forgets that
the Nagorno Karabakh Republic is an independent political-military
factor. The thing is that the state has temporarily ceded its
competences of conducting negotiations to Armenia but it hasn’t given
anyone the right to question its de facto independent status. Unless
the international community recognizes the independence of Nagorno
Karabakh, it will be impossible to impose on it any concessions.

So, the following question comes up: apart from the three options
mentioned above, are there any other reasons that may arouse concern
in our society.