Posted on Wed, Oct. 15, 2008

Worldview: Turkey’s rising role: Diplomacy

Surrounded by conflicts, it has become more active. That could benefit
the U.S.

By Trudy Rubin
Inquirer Opinion Columnist

ANKARA, Turkey – Americans who explore the wonders of Istanbul rarely
visit Turkey’s capital, deep in the plains of Anatolia. It is a city
of nondescript high-rises, government offices, and new shopping
centers that reflect Turkey’s growing prosperity.
Ankara is known mainly for two things: a stunning museum that
highlights Turkey’s ancient Anatolian past, and the vast hilltop
mausoleum of Ataturk, Turkey’s founder, whose stern face is visible on
huge banners throughout the city.
But Ankara is becoming known for something else that’s of great
strategic interest to Americans: an active foreign policy that may
help resolve conflicts in critical regions where the United States has
faltered. That includes the troubled Caucasus region, where Russia
just warred with Georgia, and the Middle East.
"If you list the key issues which Turkey and the U.S. pursue, you’d be
amazed by how many parallels there are," Turkey’s president, Abdullah
Gul, told a small group of visiting U.S. journalists and think-tank
experts in an interview in his office this week.
Indeed, almost every foreign crisis on the American agenda is also a
concern for Gul. Turkey sits at the crossroads of Asia and Europe,
bordering not only the European Union, but also Georgia, Iraq, Iran
and Syria. It has been adversely affected by growing Mideast chaos
since the Iraq war.
Turkey also sits at an energy crossroads. Efforts to build new oil and
gas pipelines from Central Asia and the Caucasus – pipelines that will
circumvent Russia and make Europe less dependent on it – all rely on
Turkey. A crucial pipeline from Azerbaijan through Georgia uses the
Turkish port of Ceyhan.
Instability in its environs has prompted Turkey to become more active
in efforts at conflict resolution. "In regional foreign policy, we had
numerous problems with our neighbors," Gul said. "They must be
resolved, or there cannot be peace."
Turkey’s emphasis has been, for the most part, on soft power and
diplomacy. It is the only country with fair to good relations with
every country in neighboring regions: close ties to Israel as well as
to Arab states; good relations with Iran and carefully managed
relations with Russia; and close ties to Georgia.
Two of Turkey’s many mediation efforts could have a positive impact on
key concerns of the United States. First is Turkey’s recent overture
to Armenia. The two nations have deep disagreements over how one
million Armenians were killed in the early 20th century; Armenians
call it genocide, while Turkey insists it was the result of warfare.
In September, Gul became the first Turkish president in history to
visit Armenia. Gul had sent congratulations to Serge Sargsyan upon his
election as Armenia’s president, and Gul in turn was invited to attend
a soccer match between the Turkish and Armenian teams in Yerevan. Both
leaders faced strong domestic opposition to the visit.
"Of course, I didn’t just go to watch soccer," Gul said. "The major
aim was to establish a climate in which we can operate from now on."
The goal is to work toward normalizing relations between Armenia and
Turkey and opening their border. Turkey also may be able to mediate
the poisonous split between Armenia and a third Caucasus country,
Azerbaijan; Armenia now occupies a large chunk of Azeri territory.
Progress on resolving these conflicts could have a positive spillover
for the Russia-Georgia standoff and prospects for new
pipelines. "Solving any [Caucasus] problem would affect us all
positively," Gul said. Turkey’s (and Armenia’s) efforts are a brave
try.
A second example is Turkey’s mediation of peace talks between Syria
and Israel. "We’ve worked hard to bring peace in the region," Gul
said. "Recently, that work became more visible."
At a time when the United States preferred to isolate Syria, Turkey
worked to get Syria and Israel back to the table (and kept Washington
informed of the effort). Four rounds of private talks have taken
place; they are now on hold as Israel forms a new government.
A Syria-Israel peace would end the current alliance between Syria and
Iran and undercut Hezbollah, forcing Tehran to rethink its policies in
the region. Such an outcome could also help resurrect the
Israeli-Palestinian peace process.
The bottom line: The next U.S. president should encourage Turkey’s
mediation and take a cue from its soft-power efforts. Turkey’s
diplomacy has opened up new possibilities for its American ally.
E-mail Trudy Rubin at trubin@phillynews.com.