ARMENIA: THE OPPOSITION TAKES A BREAK FROM YEREVAN PROTESTS
Marianna Grigoryan

EurasiaNet
Tuesday, October 21, 2008
NY

EURASIA INSIGHT

Nearly eight months after Armenia’s presidential election, Yerevan cars
may still fly the national tricolor to show support for ex-President
Levon Ter-Petrosian, but the opposition’s recent decision to call
a temporary halt to rallies suggests that its appeal is sagging,
some observers believe.

At an October 17 rally in downtown Yerevan, Ter-Petrosian cited the
need to support the government in talks with Azerbaijan over the
disputed territory of Nagorno-Karabakh as the reason for the decision
to stop the protests, ongoing since Armenia’s February presidential
vote. [For background see the Eurasia Insight archive].

"The suspension of the rallies and the marches does not mean that the
movement gives up its political struggle and the demands made with it,"
Ter-Petrosian told demonstrators.

One independent political analyst, however, argued that a
better-organized and mobilized opposition would not have needed to take
a break. "In this situation, when the authorities are taking active
steps in the foreign policy domain and making the opposition weaker,
it is important what stance the opposition leaders will have," said
Yervand Bozoian. "Had the opposition had clear programs, I think it
would not have to take a break. I think they made wrong calculations
and the statement that they’re taking a break for awhile because of
foreign tensions is not that convincing."

The "clear action plan" promised by Ter-Petrosian a few days after the
February 19 election has not yet surfaced, leaving some to wonder if
the opposition is fragmented, or just cannot come up with concrete
policy proposals. More than 120 opposition activists and supporters
still remain in jail after the March 2008 crackdown on protestors,
while police remain on watch at Yerevan’s Liberty Square, the
opposition’s traditional gathering place.

Nikol Pashinian, the editor-in-chief of the largest and best-selling
opposition daily, Haykakan Zhamanak, and, along with Ter-Petrosian,
a driving force behind the opposition rallies, has gone into hiding
abroad. He now encourages supporters via a series of articles and
editorials.

With the start of construction on an underground parking garage for
Liberty Square, though, some supporters believe that the government
has gotten a permanent jump on Ter-Petrosian’s movement and its
rallies. The construction will last two years; the city government
has denied, however, that the project is intended to block protests.

For many Armenians, the opposition’s rallies have failed to produce
results. "To be frank, I don’t understand why so many people lost
their lives. What is this struggle for?" asked one Yerevan cab driver
about the eight people who died in the March 2008 clash between
protestors and police. "People had such great expectations, but the
victory promised by the opposition appears to have remained only an
unfulfilled promise."

Yerevan engineer Mkrtich Hakobian counters that eight months is too
short a time period to realize any of those expectations. "Society
wants a power change very quickly, but politicians are there
for providing realistic solutions to emerging problems based on
pragmatism," said Hakobian, who took part in the October 17 rally.

Meanwhile, President Serzh Sargsyan’s administration has exhibited
policy pragmatism designed to prevent the opposition from gaining
traction. For example, reforms have been launched in customs and tax
administration, while Prime Minister Tigran Sarkisian (no relation
to Serzh Sargsyan) declared an official campaign against corruption,
leading to the firing of several senior officials.

In foreign policy, the unprecedented invitation to Turkish President
Abdullah Gul to visit Yerevan in September is seen as another display
of Sargsyan’s pragmatism. [For background see the Eurasia Insight
archive].

Yet that pragmatism has its limits. No dialogue between the opposition
and the government has yet taken place, and the general level of
democracy in Armenia, according to international organizations,
remains questionable.

Senior Ter-Petrosian supporter Suren Sureniants argues that a strong
public desire for democratic change does, in fact, exist; it all
comes down to tactics, he adds. "Tactics need to be developed on a
day-to-day basis, hour by hour, and this is being done. In the coming
months, I think, we will witness the opposition’s materialization."

Editor’s Note: Marianna Grigoryan is a reporter for ArmeniaNow.com
in Yerevan.