RUSSIA HAS TO RETURN KARABAKH TO AZERBAIJAN
James Hakobyan
Lragir
12:52:27 – 21/10/2008
There was worry on the faces of the Russian president Dmitry Medvedev
who landed at the Zvartnots Airport and Serge Sargsyan who met him
rather than joy of the visit or cheer of hosting. At least, the two
presidents were serious, there was a seriousness on their faces that
was about to grow into somberness. The reason may be that Medvedev and
Sargsyan have managed to meet for several times already, and meetings
have become something casual for them, which explains the casual
seriousness on their faces. Also it should not be ruled out that the
recurrent meeting takes place in a serious situation, which determined
the mood of the presidents, which was expressed on their cold faces.
The situation is really serious. The struggle for influence in the
Caucasus is escalating. Mostly the struggle is between the United
States and Russia.
Considering the logic of this struggle, the United States and Russia
are separately trying to involve ambitious allies in struggle. For
instance, Russia expects to neutralize, prevent or reduce the influence
of the United States through Turkey. For that reason the Russians
want to become a mediator of improvement of the Turkish-Armenian
relations, thereby removing Georgia from the Caucasian axis, which
would mean the weakening of the influence of the United States which
has great influence on Georgia in the Caucasus. In order to improve
the Armenian-Turkish relation, the Russians must resolve the issue
of Karabakh, more exactly, the issue of the return of the liberated
territories because for Turkey it is not favorable to improve relations
with Armenia with its current geopolitical position.
The point is that the return of the territories to Azerbaijan weakens
both Armenia and Iran. In other words, two important problems of
Turkey are solved at once.
The Russians realize that the last chance to remain in the Caucasus is
to solve that problem. On the other hand, it does not promise a clear
sky because the behavior of Turkey afterwards is unpredictable. The
point is that with Armenia and Iran weakened by the return of
territories, with the reduced role of the United States, after
solving these problems through Russia, Turkey and Azerbaijan may
start successfully to neutralize the position of Russia, and all the
Russians could do to hold on to the Caucasus would be a war, which
is practically impossible, and may at best lead to a draw. In other
words, the Caucasus would turn into a gigantic crater where the war
would last forever, and everyone would fight against one another,
and would not understand who they are fighting against.
The Russian president has reason to worry, and the expression on
his face is quite clear. The point is that even after imposing the
return of territories on Armenia the problem20will not solve for
Russia. The Kremlin pays an expensive price for the recognition of the
independence of Abkhazia and South Ossetia, and is actually facing the
fact of recognizing the "independence". However, Serge Sargsyan also
has reason for a serious and worried expression on his face. And the
reason is not the hasty visit of the U.S. assistant secretary Daniel
Fried to Armenia before the visit of Medvedev. Moreover, Fried’s visit
could have been encouraging for Serge Sargsyan if Sargsyan had not gone
that far in the foreign policy of "initiation". Now even Condoleezza
Rice, let alone Fried, is already unable to bring back Armenia. And
the Russians also made it clear: several hours before the visit of
Medvedev the recurrent repair on the gas pipeline to Armenia began,
and Levitin stated in Yerevan that the oil refinery trumpeted as
almost the "project of the century" economically is not feasible. Now,
Armenia, try to stop half the way you have "initiated". Maybe it is
difficult to go forward because now the trap of the Armenian-Turkish
relation is obvious, in which Serge Sargsyan got caught, stating in
Moscow that he is going to invite Gul to watch football and is ready
to accept the idea of the commission of historians. It turns out that
Armenia pays for the air ticket of Gul, and pays with the liberated
territories and the recognition of the genocide.
Now the question occurs which Armenia is going to pay for Medvedev’s
"ticket".