CONSENSUS OVER KARABAKH ISSUE SEEMS ATTAINABLE – AZERI THINK-TANK GROUP

Turan News Agency
Oct 9 2008
Azerbaijan

Problems in the Southern Caucasus are again in the spotlight of the
interested sides and international organizations, a piece from the
analytical service of Azerbaijani independent agency has written. The
latest events in Georgia served a lesson for superpowers and they
do not want a repeat of similar events in the Armenian-Azerbaijani
conflict over the Karabakh problem, the report said. In a comment
on optimistic statements from the USA and Russia about the need for
resolving the conflict within the framework of Azerbaijan’s territorial
integrity and international laws, the Azerbaijani official described
them as positive signs. The report also concludes that the Turkish
initiative on a new stability platform in the Caucasus seems getting
positive reactions from the regional countries. The following is the
text of Turan’s analytical service report by private Azerbaijani news
agency Turan on 9 October headlined "Intensification of the Karabakh
problem"; subheadings have been inserted editorially:

The latest known events in Georgia have been conducive to a sharp
concentration of attention and the intensification of the diplomatic
activities of all the interested powers and international organizations
to problems and the future of the South Caucasus region. The
highest accumulation of interest has become apparent in the extreme
intensification of the Nagornyy Karabakh (the Armenian-Azerbaijani)
conflict settlement.

Protracted Karabakh problem again comes under the spotlight

The preservation of this conflict in a frozen and indefinite ("up in
the air") state for a long time seemed suited everyone: both the OSCE
Minsk Group and the mediating countries (the USA, Russia and France)
and even the conflicting countries (official Yerevan and Baku), who
did not show an excessive zeal for the resolution of the problem. For
this reason, the negotiations process proceeded in a tedious and
drooped regime with a periodical imitation of brief intensification
and without any serious breakthrough enabling the sides to count on
quick achievement of positive results.

The events in Georgia have unexpectedly and sharply brought up to
date the problem of the Armenian-Azerbaijani conflict and a powerful
impulse to stepping up peacekeeping and mediation efforts (both in
a previous and a new format) in order to secure a quick solution to
the Karabakh problem.

In essence, all the interested countries (the USA, Russia, France and
Turkey) despite the "post-Georgian" tension and the rivalry in the
relations, they suddenly started to demonstrate a surprising solidarity
with regard to the necessity of a quick and peaceful resolution to
the Karabakh problem within the framework of the international laws
and the territorial integrity of Azerbaijan.

The impression is that a certain geopolitical consensus has already
been achieved over the necessity of a quick resolution of "the Karabakh
knot" although models of resolution most likely will differ. Anyway,
the Karabakh problem is again cherishing optimistic expectations.

The plenipotentiary representative of the president of the
Parliamentary Assembly of PACE, Goran Lennmarker, has recently
said that 2009 will be a decisive year for the resolution of the
Armenian-Azerbaijani conflict. Commenting on these remarks, the head
of the department for international relations under the Presidential
Executive Staff, Novruz Mammadov, also seemed optimistic: "The need
for the settlement of the conflict is obvious for everyone for the
neighbouring powers, Armenia, the US administration, the Minsk Group
co-chairmen and members of the Council of Europe. Proceeding from this,
one should expect concrete and substantial steps for the resolution of
this conflict next year. With a delay in the resolution of the problem,
Armenia is losing a lot and in fact, brings its future into question."

Consensus seems possible among key players

A short while earlier the US OSCE Minsk Group co-chair, Matthew Bryza,
said in Baku: "The Georgian events testify to the need for a quick
resolution to the Nagornyy Karabakh conflict." At the same time,
he emphasized that "the resolution of the Karabakh conflict starts
from the principle of the territorial integrity, taking into account
international experience and laws".

They are not only conditional upon the fact that Russia may in this
or that form repeat the Georgian scenario in Azerbaijan but also with
the fact that by always resorting to similar blackmail, Moscow can
noticeably hammer out or correct in a necessary vein geopolitical,
regional and energy plans of the South Caucasus countries (first of
all of Baku). After the Georgian separatist conflicts were temporarily
"removed" from the agenda, the Karabakh problem has turned into a key
risk factor and a leverage of manipulating with the situation in the
South Caucasus which stimulates an interest of the West to resolve
the problem.

However, though strange, Moscow also started to demonstrate a similar
interest. Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov’s interview with
Rossiyskaya Gazeta was filled with optimistic forecasts in this regard:
"Our feeling, as one of the three mediators, is that the upshot is
completely possible. It goes without saying that it is up to Armenia
and Azerbaijan to resolve [the problem] within the framework of
direct agreements, but the mediators: Russia, the USA and France,
who understand all the subtleties of this process, see a chance of
resolving it."

Speaking about Armenia’s difficulties, which "has a few geographical
and political connections [with outer world]" except for de-blocking
relations with Turkey and Azerbaijan, Lavrov also notes an "absolute
need and urgency for a quick resolution" to the Karabakh problem. True,
without considering it important to note again the need for the
resolution of the problem within the framework of Azerbaijan’s
territorial integrity.

Briefly, all the interested sides (the USA, Russia, Turkey, the
European Union, the OSCE Minsk Group and the sides to the conflict
themselves) are united on the need for a quick resolution of the
conflict and express a certain optimism about the matter. It is
noteworthy that all the sides express full support for the diplomatic
activities and a peaceful initiative of Turkey for the realization
of the Caucasus Peace and Stability Platform, viewing it as a real
way of resolving many problems of the region, in particular, the
Armenian-Azerbaijani conflict.

This circumstance allows us to assume the presence of a certain
preliminary consensus about Turkey’s initiative within the framework
of which a breakthrough is also possible in the Karabakh settlement.