RUSSIA NOT INTERESTED IN RESOLUTION OF NAGORNO-KARABAKH CONFLICT BY MILITARY MEANS: PRESIDENT OF RUSSIA’S NATIONAL STRATEGY INSTITUTE

TREND Information
23.10.08 10:30
Azerbaijan

Mikhail Remizov, President of Russia’s National Strategy Institute
especially for TrendNews

Russia’s motives in the resolution of the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict
are evident. Though it does not affect Moscow as in case of Georgia’s
conflicts with its former autonomies, it is of great significance for
Kremlin as it restricts geopolitical opportunities in the region and
it creates zone of vulnerability.

Armenia is Russia’s ally in the Collective Security Treaty Organization
(CSTO). If serious military actions begin and Russia finds formal
excuse refusing to help, not acting as a guarantee of security for
its ally, it will deal a serious blow to the image of CSTO and will
cast doubts over the core of ally ties with Russia. On the other hand,
Russia is very important partner of Azerbaijan. Russia does not want
to harm relations with Azerbaijan because of Karabakh problem.

Therefore, Russia is not interested the resolution of the conflict
by military means. Now it is more likely to happen. Azerbaijan has
lost its patience and more and more statements are made about the
necessity to solve the problem.

The other regional players can be interested in the escalation of the
conflict. Russia’s real aim is to prevent it. It does not mean that
the conflict will be settled. I do not believe in the resolution of
such land disputes that will satisfy both sides.

Certain political pragmatism could recommend Azerbaijan and Armenia
certain moderateness in this issue. Karabakh factor is ballast for both
sides in international policy. As a dynamically developing regional
power with a good potential, Azerbaijan does not need to spend energy
on the dead-end military conflict. Though Azerbaijan’s economic and
military potential is high, Nagorno-Karabakh has strong mobilized
potential given the number of the Armenians all over the world,
psychological readiness and opportunities of the Armenian diaspora.

Armenia is in geographic isolation, especially after Russia-Georgia
conflict. Armenia-Turkey relations are closely linked with the
Nagorno-Karabakh problem and Yerevan must solve this problem in order
to restore relations with Turkey. This would be favorable for both
parties. But the sides will hardly move towards each other. Therefore,
the best thing to do is to maintain status quo and to prevent next
struggle from sparking off.

The experience of Trans-Dniester conflict showed that Russia fails to
replace format of peacekeeping groups. At that time, Moscow could not
remove EU and US out of brackets. Furthermore, US is an important
player for Armenia and Azerbaijan on the equal level. Therefore,
main point is not to exclude US from the peacekeeping process, but to
prevent possible freezing of conflicts in the region. I feel America,
as an out-of-region player, considers any result of freezing of the
conflict acceptable for itself. At any case, it will mean to increase
zone of vulnerability of Azerbaijan and Armenia and strengthening
America’s stakes in the region.

Opinions expressed in this article may be different of those held by
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