ILHAM ALIYEV: AZERBAIJAN’S PLAYBOY TURNED STRONGMAN

Agence France Presse
October 15, 2008 Wednesday 11:07 AM GMT

Ilham Aliyev, expected to sweep Azerbaijan’s presidential election on
Wednesday, has transformed his playboy image into that of a strongman
like his father, whom he succeeded to the top job in 2003.

When the well-groomed, laid-back son of veteran leader Heydar
Aliyev won the election five years ago, most thought he lacked the
ruthlessness and cunning needed to match the dominance his father
had exerted for more than 30 years.

In what was the former Soviet Union’s first family succession, the
younger Aliyev took over from his dying father after an election
widely criticised as less than free and fair.

Five years on, his re-election, challenged by no serious opponent,
is a foregone conclusion.

"He has imposed himself as a politician. He is stronger than he was
five years ago thanks to the oppression of his opponents," said Sabit
Baghirov, former head of the state oil company SOCAR.

Independent political analyst Rasim Musabayov said: "Ilham Aliyev
surprised us. He is his father’s son. Many of us under-estimated him."

Contrasting Aliyev to Mikheil Saakashvili, his counterpart in Georgia,
another former Soviet republic of the Caucasus now closely allied
with Washington, Musabayov said the Azeri leader has "demonstrated
prudence."

And although he has done little to resolve a festering dispute with
Armenia over the territory of Nagorny Karabakh, Aliyev has also made
no big mistakes in five years at the helm, he said.

Aliyev, who has a doctorate in history and studied at Moscow’s
prestigious State Institute for International Relations, had served
as vice president of SOCAR, as a parliamentary member and as president
of the national Olympic committee.

But the moustachioed young successor could not shake off his image
of a playboy and heavy gambler dating from the early 1990s. In
a political system characterised by regional clans and competition
over growing Caspian Sea oil wealth, Aliyev was widely assumed to be
a transitional figure.

But the 46-year-old has since surprised critics with both his toughness
and flexibility, a combination illustrated by the jailing of some
political opponents and the freeing of others.

Experts credit Aliyev with adeptly exploiting his oil-rich country’s
strategic importance to become a genuine player on the international
scene that must be reckoned with.

His country has joined GUAM, an anti-Russian bloc grouping four
former Soviet republics; a string of senior US officials have stopped
by recently to show their support ahead of the vote; and Moscow is
courting Azerbaijan to secure gas purchases.

"He lives according to the legacy of his father, but he is trying
to set his own agenda," said a Western diplomat in Baku, speaking on
condition of anonymity.

"When he came to power he was not a politician. But he has demonstrated
that he is capable of running a country, which is nothing to sneeze
at," the diplomat said.

On the domestic front, Aliyev has managed to stabilise his country’s
economy, although critics say he has done little to improve
Azerbaijan’s abysmal human rights situation.

Journalists complain he is even tougher than his father and has
created a climate that discourages free media. The assassination in
March 2005 of Elmar Huseynov, a fierce government critic, dealt a
heavy blow to press freedom.

"We believed this was someone young, energetic, modern, capable of
building relations with people," said Shakhbaz Khuduoglu, a journalist
close to the country’s opposition.

"He proved us wrong," he said.

Born on December 24, 1961, Ilham Aliyev speaks fluent English, French
and Russian.

He is married to Mekhriban Aliyeva, an eye doctor with whom he appears
regularly on television. The couple have three children.