NOW THAT SOUTH OSSETIA AND ABKHAZIA GAINED SOVEREIGNTY, PROBLEM OF NAGORNO-KARABAKH WILL HAVE TO BE SETTLED TOO

DEFENSE and SECURITY
October 17, 2008 Friday
Russia

Professor Andrei Manoilo (Department of International Relations of the
Russian Foreign Ministry’s Diplomatic Academy): The situation with the
latent conflict over Nagorno-Karabakh is moving toward settlement. On
the other hand, any attempt to force a solution now will immediately
foment hostilities. Should the United States or NATO decide to
intercede, it will probably create an armed conflict too. Moreover,
conflict areas on the Russian borders are quite convenient as
instruments of pressure. No wonder the conflict in South Ossetia was
provoked as soon as Moscow defied Washington on the matter of Iran.

Iran commands vast respect and wields a lot of clout with the region
in question, and particularly with Azerbaijan. What with the respect
Russia commands in Armenia, a coalition of Moscow with Tehran may
facilitate conflict settlement.

Turkey on the other hand had better stay away even though it is another
major player in the region. Unless Ankara found an acceptable form
of reconciliation with Yerevan, its interference would only worsen
things in general.

As for Russia, it should prevent settlement of the Azerbaijani-Armenian
discord by the United States or NATO. Besides, advancement of direct
economic and political contacts between Armenia and Azerbaijan is in
Russia’s interests. It will make settlement of the conflict all the
more easier, you know.