ON THE VERGE OF CONFRONTATION INSIDE THE GOVERNMENT
Haik Aramyan
Lragir.am
13:57:26 – 21/10/2008
In the rally of October 17 Levon Ter-Petrosyan stated that the
opposition temporarily stops public struggle, explaining that by
geopolitical factors, and particularly the danger posed to Karabakh. By
this step of the first president the internal "status quo" of the
recent months in Armenia changes, and may lead to serious change and
redistribution. The problem has two aspects, internal and external. On
the internal arena, over the six months of his office Serge Sargsyan
was unable to settle the post-election situation and establish
his pyramid of government. On the external arena, the situation
becomes unfavorable for Serge Sargsyan. He was actually "let down"
in the developments regarding the Armenian and Turkish relations, the
sweeping start of which promised serious political capital to Serge
Sargsyan. It turned out that the recurrent Russian-Turkish alliance
involved return of Karabakh to Azerbaijan and deployment of Russian
troops there. Meanwhile, the readiness to return the territories had
already been announced on behalf of Serge Sargsyan. In fact, Serge
Sargsyan’s government was not adequate to the political developments,
and got entangled in their "initiatives", from which there is only
one way out – to agree to meet every external pressure and demand.
For their part, the recent reports in the press that Robert Kocharyan
is going to return to politics in November become interesting.
Ter-Petrosyan’s departure from the arena and the current situation of
the government on the one hand, and the recent developments regarding
the Karabakh issue on the other hand, enable Kocharyan to create a
basis for his return. The point is that in public consciousness the
approaches of Levon Ter-Petrosyan and Serge Sargsyan towards the issue
of NKR and the regional problems do not differ much, while Kocharyan’s
point of view is different. In one of his recent interviews Kocharyan
underlined that difference, stating that he would not have invited Gul
to Armenia. And if at that time the statement was described as a major
political mistake, in the current complicated situation it may become
a trump card. For their part, the ARF Dashnaktsutyun and the Bargavach
Hayastan Party, as well as the "political" wing of the Republicans
may join Kocharyan, thereby dissolving the political coalition.
In addition, the issue of the March 1 tragedy again became a
burning topic in the sense that for the first time the international
organizations demanded to hold the government accountable although
the government tries to blame the opposition for the tragedy of March
1. In addition, the international organizations present this problem
together with other problems, which does not allow the government to
maneuver. Hence, the tragedy should be blamed on someone, which is
another reason for a serious confrontation inside the government.
It is difficult to tell whether this situation has dictated the current
tactics of the opposition, about which Levon Ter-Petrosyan stated,
noting however that he is not going to reveal the details. On the other
hand, it is strange that the West and the United States in particular
endorse Serge Sargsyan’s "bold steps" every now and then. Obviously,
Serge Sargsyan is pushed to take steps both inside the country and
in foreign policies. What steps are they and do they refer to the
Turkish-Armenian relations? Perhaps not only and no all that. Most
probably, the problem is to bring about a new situation in Armenia,
after which all the other problems will be "solved". And there are
all the preconditions for that. Here it is worthwhile to remember
the discourse on the "second generation reforms" in Armenia before
the presidential election 2007, which ended in the night of May 12
and the morning of May 13, 2007.