RUSSIA TO SUFFER HEAVIER LOSSES FROM GLOBAL CRISIS THAN ARMENIA, EXPERT SAYS

ARKA
Oct 23, 2008

YEREVAN, October 23. /ARKA/. Russia is likely to suffer bigger losses
from the global financial crisis than Armenia, according to Academician
Abel Aghanbekyan, head of the Business Management Doctor Program.

Since Armenia lacks "seatbelts to be safe from the crisis, the country
needs to settle all the issues on-the-run", the expert said at the
roundtable Armenian and Russian Economies Today and Tomorrow.

Armenia and Russia have quite different relations with other courtiers,
and global developments have a contradictory influence on Armenia,
according to Aghanbekyan.

The record-low oil prices can be an advantage and may result in a
two-fold cut in petrol prices, he said, adding local gas-filling
stations will have an opportunity to lower petrol prices.

The expert believes changes in the euro/dollar exchange rate are
likely to influence Armenia depending on the imports and exports.

Aghanbekyan said the global financial crisis would first of all hit
investments in Armenia’s economy.

"Feeling lack of liquidity, people cut donations," he added. Moscow
is now in a difficult situation, as the foreigners who were involved
in urban construction have lost their jobs and do not have money to
return home," Aghanbekyan said.

This will affect foreign transfers to Armenia, according to the expert.

"This will intensify inflation pressure, with the crisis devaluating
savings and hampering the banking business," he said.

Russian non-commercial transfers to Armenia totaled $858.2mln as of
end-August – 38.4% ($620mln) year-on-year increase, the Central Bank
of Armenia reports.

Aghanbekyan believes shrewd and well-organized businesses can derive
benefits from the crisis. "Good companies increase their market share
during a crisis," he said. Good financial organizations buy sinking
stocks to expand their business.

"On the one hand, a crisis is a major stress, on the other hand,
it purifies markets and helps them boost in the future," the expert
added.