INTERNATIONAL FINANCIAL CRISIS WILL START AFFECTING ARMENIAN ECONOMY AFTER FIRST QUARTER OF 2009, ECONOMIST ANDRANIK TEVANIAN FORECASTS
Noyan Tapan
Oct 22, 2008
YEREVAN, OCTOBER 22, NOYAN TAPAN. The international financial crisis
has not yet affected the Armenian economy because the country’s
economy is not integrated into international market. The director of
Politeconom research institute, economist Andranik Tevanian expressed
this opinion at the October 22 press conference. By his forecast,
the crisis will start affecting Armenian economy after the first
quarter of 2009.
The impact of the crisis on Armenia’s economy will be an indirect
one. In particular, according to A. Tevanian, remittances from abroad
will decrease as the Armenian emigrants working in other countries will
feel the impact of the crisis. By estimates of A. Tevanian, remittances
make a sum comparable to expenditures of the RA state budget: in 2007
the remittances amounted to nearly 2 billion dollars. The economist
pointed out the inaccessibility of credit resources as the second
problem. For example, it has already become difficult to conclude
real estate deals by credits in the mortgage market of Armenia. "The
banks do not provide loans. There is quite a serious problem of credit
resources, there is no cash," he said.
According to A. Tevanian, economic problems will arise in Armenia
not only due to external factors but also because of the Armenian
government’s activities. He considered the government tax policy as
wrong. In his words, money is collected to fill the state budget,
whereas the budget is the consequence of the overall economic
situation, it is not a goal. Besides, in the economist’s opinion,
small and medium business will suffer as a result of the introduction
of cash registers in trade facilities.
A. Tevanian said that with the aim of preventing the possible
economic crisis in Armenia, it is necessary first of all to change
the structure of the country’s economy, then to ensure competitive
economic relations.
Besides, there is a necessity to separate the authorities from business
and ease the tax burden of small and medium business.