Turan News Agency, Azerbaijan
Oct 23 2008

Azeri experts comment on Russian proposal to mediate Karabakh talks

Baku, 23 October: The intensified mediation efforts of Russia on the
Karabakh resolution is connected with two factors: the change in the
regional situation after the August events in Georgia and the West’s
advancement to the South Caucasus, [former Azerbaijani ambassador to
Russia] Hikmat Hacizada, head of the FAR CENTR Economic and Political
Research Centre, has said in comments on Russian President Dmitriy
Medvedev’s initiative to host a meeting between the leaders of
Azerbaijan, Armenia and Russia in early November.

As Hacizada said, the military conflict between Russia and Georgia led
to changes in the regional situation. In particular, Armenia, the
closest ally of Russia in the Caucasus, has actually turned out to be
deprived of the communications with the external world. On the other
hand, the advancement of the West to the east and its presence in
Georgia also compels Russia to become active in preserving its
influence in the region.

Hacizada believes that Russia may propose the liberation of the
occupied districts around Nagornyy Karabakh and the deployment of
Russian peacekeepers there. The issue of the status of Nagornyy
Karabakh will be postponed. Given this, the Karabakh conflict will be
frozen as was the case in Cyprus. However, the West does not want to
let the initiative go either. It will insist on stationing
international forces in the region. Asked if Azerbaijan would agree to
the Russian proposal, the political expert found it difficult to
answer the question.

The head of the public forum For Azerbaijan, Eldar Namazov, says that
it is not only Russia that displays diplomatic activeness in the
region but also other political centres. At the same time, he pointed
to the recent visits of the Turkish president to Armenia and
Azerbaijan, visits of the French and the US co-chairs of the OSCE
Minsk Group and the visit of the US Deputy Assistant Secretary Daniel
Fried to Yerevan last week. All these came after the military conflict
between Russia and Georgia. As a whole, there is a general mood
towards the resolution of the Karabakh problem. "Exactly the
intensification of the activities of many players shows that the
conflict has not been resolved only for the inability of the sides to
agree but also for the lack of major interests of the influential
foreign forces," Namazov said.

Will the worsening relations between the West and Russia hinder
achievement of an agreement on the Karabakh conflict? In reply to this
question, Namazov said that the Karabakh conflict can right be one of
those issues which "can restore the balance of mutual relations
between the West and Russia which has been upset due to the conflict
in Georgia". To what extent is a breakthrough real in the Karabakh
settlement in the near future? Namazov believes that there are
encouraging factors. In particular, the basis for optimism is the
"historic visit" of Turkish President Abdullah Gul to Yerevan and the
arrival of the Russian Northern Fleet vessels in Turkey on a friendly
mission. "That is to say, there take place things which could have
been unimaginable six months ago," said Namazov. At the same time, he
expressed an opinion that the sides to the conflict should not let the
"window of the opportunities" close.

Political expert Zardust Alizada considers that after the events in
South Ossetia, Russia’s international image has been damaged and she
wants to repair it. To this end, Moscow is trying to act in a role of
a peacekeeper in the resolution of the Karabakh conflict. Naturally,
Russia will propose such an option which enables it to keep its
control in the region. To a certain extent, the interests of the
Azerbaijani and Armenian sides would also be satisfied.

At the same time, Russia will try to resolve the problem alone without
the Western partners as was the case in 1994 in Bishkek. At that time,
although the diplomatic efforts of European countries within the
framework of the OSCE Minsk Group, a peace agreement was signed with
formal mediation of the Parliamentary Assembly of the CIS [the
Commonwealth of Independent States] but actually with the
participation of Russia.

Alizada believes that now Russia may propose the vacation of part of
the occupied Azerbaijani lands with postponement of the resolution of
the status of Karabakh, the Lacin corridor and possibly of Kalbacar
District. In exchange for this, Russia may demand the right to station
her peacekeepers in the region.

If Azerbaijan rejects this option, Russia may again say that we
suggested an option for the resolution of the conflict but the sides
did not agree. At the same time, Alizada does not rule out
"gas-for-Karabakh" proposal by Russia.

So in exchange for Azerbaijani gas exports through Russia, it may
agree to pressure Armenia to make it agree to Karabakh’s remaining
under control of Azerbaijan. Given this, Nagornyy Karabakh may be
given a status like the model of the Aland Islands in Finland.

[translated]