BRUCE TASKER: HOW MUCH WILL AZERBAIJAN PAY THE KOCHARIAN / SARGSYAN REGIME FOR A PEACEFUL RESOLUTION?
Lragir.am
11:36:14 – 27/10/2008
Bruce Tasker who blows the whistle of the World Bank in Washington
analyses the recent situation about the territories surrounding
Karabakh
My analysis of the situation is that Sargsyan is in fact going ahead
with the ‘Sell-out’ of Karabakh, which in principle should be the
return of the surrounding territories, but taking into account recent
reports, might even now include capitulation on Karabakh itself. This
program has been planned by Robert Kocharian, under preparation for
several years, and I argue supported by the World Bank (and the IMF).
Following the South Ossetia conflict, Russia has been planning
to isolate Georgia, and has required that Armenia cut off the
electricity it supplies to Georgia’s rail system, which would in turn
have led to a new Georgian blockade of Armenia. For this reason,
Serzh has been rushing to open the Turkish border, which has meant
resolving three issues; Karabakh, Genocide, and the Armenian lands
in eastern Turkey. That situation fundamentally changed when on the
10th October Tigran Sarkissian met with Dick Cheney, which signaled
closer cooperation between Armenia and the US, and which inevitably
meant that Armenia would not act in a detrimental manner to America’s
close friend and ally Georgia.
Seemingly, Armenia has acted against Russia’s better interests, but
it is also possible that Armenia and Russia had planned this move
jointly to alleviate growing tensions between Russia and the US. In
any event, the Georgian transit route was consequently to stay open
and the pressure to open the Turkish border was therefore relieved.
We are now back to square one, Armenia has to agree to a resolution
on the Karabakh issue, the agreement Kocharian has been promising for
several years. So the question is simple; how much will Azerbaijan
pay the Kocharian / Sargsyan regime for a peaceful resolution to the
problem. If the regime accepts the package, then the agreement will
be signed. If not, Sargsyan will provoke Azerbaijan into the war they
have been threatening.
It is inevitable that this time Armenia will lose that war, but
throughout the duration, which could be several months, Azerbaijan
will pay the heavy cost of the war and lose it’s two billion dollar
monthly income from oil exports. Armenia will also pay a high price,
but in the event of a war, Serzh will not suffer personally, but will
come out a hero, rather than a traitor for capitulating on Karabakh,
seemingly with nothing to show for Armenia.
My estimation is the Kocharian / Sargsyan demand for a peaceful
settlement at about $5 billion (maybe more), which could come in cash,
materials, goods, or high-value projects. In any event the compensation
package will eventually benefit the regime, not the peoples of Armenia
and Karabakh to whom it rightly belongs.
I have been regularly articulating these issues through ‘khosq’,
and the program is proceeding exactly as I have anticipated, although
with some delays resulting from the bloody 1st March events.
Latest news: Turkey’s President Gul announced the US in Ankara his
dismay to Serzh’s sudden change in position, after having asked him
at the famous football match to discuss the Karabakh matter with
Aliyev in Baku. Turkey is a close US ally and it is possible that
Gul is in fact a US mouthpiece, in which case, if Serzh does not
soon go ahead with the agreement to solve the Karabakh conflict,
we might soon start to hear more from Gul.
Every effort should be made to expose the "Karabakh Sell-out" which
is in process, and Armenia MUST receive compensation for the return
of the surrounding territories. Most important, the compensation
package belongs to the people.
Regards, Bruce Tasker Still Blowing the World Bank Whistle in
Washington.