AZERBAIJAN OFFERS TOTAL AND UNCONDITIONAL SURRENDER TO ARMENIA — EXPERT OPINION
Regnum
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Oct 29 2008
Russia
The inaugural address of Ilham Aliev, President of Azerbaijan,
reiterates that Azerbaijan’s stance on the settlement of the
Nagorno-Karabakh conflict remains unchanged, Dr Armen Ayvazyan, Head of
the ARARAT Center for Strategic Research told a REGNUM correspondent.
Dr Ayvazyan noted that Baku rules out, even in theory, the possibility
for reasonable compromise with the Armenian side regarding not
only the question of territories, but also the future status of
Nagorno-Karabakh. "As a matter of fact, the Armenian side is dealing
with nothing less than Baku’s demand for total and unconditional
surrender of Armenia." This uncompromising stance of Azerbaijan
completely undermines the current negotiation process, making it a
common farce, which in the future will beget nothing but a full-scale
war," Dr Ayvazyan stresses.
He noted that the Armenian side continues to invoke the "Madrid
agreements," which mention the right of the people of Nagorno-Karabakh
to self-determination. "Yet, the right to self-determination may be
defined in various ways. De jure, the now defunct Nagorno-Karabakh
Autonomous Oblast was also a form of self-determination: Nevertheless,
it was unable to ensure the physical, demographic or cultural security
of the Karabakh Armenians." Dr Ayvazyan further noted that if the
parties to the conflict interpret the very fundamental provisions of
their agreements differently, then those "agreements" as well as the
negotiations that lead to them have no value whatsoever. "After all,
with many different interpretations in place, the interpretation
that will be implemented will be the one which the stronger side of
the conflict forces upon the weaker, in accordance with the ‘might
decides right’ principle. Whereas surrender of territories in the
meantime will radically decrease the defensibility of the Armenian
side," says the expert.
In Dr Ayvazyan’s opinion, "at a time when Azerbaijan is airing
ultimatums, it is suicidal for the Armenian side to make any
compromises, especially to concede land — the utmost component of
its military security. In this context, the diplomatic overtures by
high-ranking Armenian officials towards Azerbaijan and its ally Turkey,
are not serious, to say the least. Such unreciprocated pleasantries
only mislead the Armenian public.
The expert highlights that Armenia’s stance lacks precisely that
clarity which is explicit in Azerbaijan’s position on the settlement of
the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict. "Complementary policy, no less inherent
in the Azerbaijani foreign policy than in the Armenian one, succeeds
only because it clearly draws the line beyond which no compromise is
acceptable. This enables Baku to put constant pressure on Armenia and,
at the same time, protects her from the pressure and criticism of the
mediators and other third parties," he explains. "As for the current
intensive debate in the press about possible scenarios of how the
events may unfold in light of the so called ‘pressures’ by Russia
on Armenia, this is very much akin to fortune-telling: they torture
themselves with the question ‘will they or will they not cede’? This
attitude is especially evident in the commentary about the remarks
of Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov, who suggested the ceding
of liberated territory, which serves as a security/buffer zone around
NKR," argues Dr Ayvazyan.
Ayvazyan believes that the number of unknowns in the Russian
initiative does not give Yerevan or Baku, and even more so the expert
community, any grounds for making far-reaching conclusions. "There is
no doubt Russia is trying to make a diplomatic leap into the former
Transcaucasus, and it is possible that Russia wants to achieve this by
partly sacrificing the interests of Armenia’s military security." But
the expert notes that even this Russian scenario, if it really consists
of surrendering territories and deploying Russian peacekeepers in and
around Karabakh, would not satisfy the ambitions of Azerbaijan. The
latter will hardly agree to the presence of Russian military bases on
the Nagorno-Karabakh territory, especially when considering the fate
of Abkhazia and South Ossetia. "Such scenario cannot be accepted by
the Armenian side either. And in this particular case — namely in
this life and death issue — the party to the conflict is not the
Armenian government, but all Armenian people," he noted.
Ayvazyan does not exclude other scenarios as well. "It is possible that
an entirely different combination is being laid out by the Kremlin
— namely a bluff intended to grab first place in the new game for
dominance in the Transcaucasus. A similar short-lived bluff is the
Turkish initiative for Caucasus Stability and Security Platform,
which, though it has no chance of fruition, is already yielding
dividends to Turkey, the initiating side," Ayvazyan explains.
The expert deduces that the only somber conclusion that can be made
in regard to the current peace talks is that the Karabakh conflict
cannot be resolved through negotiations. "A peaceful settlement
of the conflict could only imply preservation of the status-quo
solidified in a legal form, because all other scenarios will imply
resumption of war, with unforeseen consequences for the parties to the
conflict as well as to the region at large." Ayvazyan believes that
in the current situation the Armenian leadership should focus its
attention not so much on the external processes that defy reliable
medium-term forecasts, but on strategic constants of security —
such as strengthening the army, utilizing the liberated territory,
building effective state institutions, and launching a demographic
policy focused on mass repatriation of Armenians.