AZERBAIJAN’S STALLED ARMY REFORM

International Crisis Group
=5751&l=1&m=1
Oct 29 2008
Belgium

Baku/Tbilisi/Brussels, 29 October 2008: Reform of Azerbaijan’s
controversial army is stalling for lack of political will.

Azerbaijan: Defence Sector Management and Reform, the latest
policy briefing from the International Crisis Group, examines the
difficulties the country faces in upgrading its military. Oil wealth
has been poured into a defence budget that has increased more than
ten-fold in five years, raising concerns President Ilham Aliyev might
eventually choose war with Armenia to recover Nagorno-Karabakh. But
reforms could also make the army more accountable, less corrupt and
a contributor to democratisation.

Unwillingness to take tough decisions, including how far to cooperate
with and accept advice from NATO while balancing relations with
Russia and Iran, has led to stalemate in efforts to reduce widespread
inefficiency, corruption and mistreatment in the army. For now at
least, the delicate military balance with Armenia probably still holds.

"Defence sector reform should be an integral part of an overall
democratic process, said Lawrence Sheets, Crisis Group Caucasus
Project Director. "If Azerbaijan is committed to thorough reform of the
military, it will need to change substantially in many other areas of
government and society as well. But parliament has failed to oversee
military expenditure and has no authority to summon power ministers,
including the defence minister, to report on their activities".

A modern and efficient army, even if subject to democratic, civilian
control, is not unproblematic while the loss of Nagorno-Karabakh
remains deeply resented. But ability to hold leaders to account for
expenditures and policy priorities at least has the potential to make
the system more responsible and predictable.

Azerbaijan needs to improve dissemination of defence information and
expand awareness about its increased military spending. NATO, which is
helping with its military reform, should facilitate dialogue between
the militaries of both Azerbaijan and Armenia. The international
community, including the EU, U.S. and Russia should push the parties
harder to resolve their conflict peacefully.

"It makes sense both for Azerbaijan to pursue the kind of deep reforms
of structures, laws and procedures necessary to build a truly excellent
military and for NATO and other democratic states to provide a degree
of assistance", said Sabine Freizer, Crisis Group Europe Program
Director. "However, the fundamental need is for all who profess an
interest in stability in these areas to give more priority to ensuring
that it is diplomacy, not war that provides the answer to the still
dangerous Nagorno-Karabakh conflict".

Contacts: Andrew Stroehlein (Brussels) +32 (0) 2 541 1635 Kimberly
Abbott (Washington) +1 202 785 1601 To contact Crisis Group media
please click here *Read the full Crisis Group report on our website: