MOSCOW TO HOST KARABAKH TALKS IN BID FOR PEACEMAKER ROLE

Agence France Presse
Oct 29 2008

MOSCOW (AFP) — The Kremlin said on Wednesday that it will host the
leaders of Armenia and Azerbaijan for talks on the disputed Nagorny
Karabakh region, playing peacemaker in the Caucasus after its war
with Georgia.

"On November 2, 2008, in Moscow… a meeting will take place between
Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev and Armenian President Serzh
Sarkisian… on the regulation of the Nagorny Karabakh conflict,"
a Kremlin statement said.

Armenia and Azerbaijan confirmed that the meeting would be held,
but presidential officials in both countries declined to comment
further. The Kremlin said Russian President Dmitry Medvedev would
host the meeting.

Medvedev visited Armenia last week in a fresh push to end the
long-simmering conflict over Nagorny Karabakh, an enclave of Azerbaijan
with a largely ethnic Armenian population that broke free of Baku’s
control in the early 1990s.

Sarkisian said at the meeting that he was ready for talks with Baku
on the basis of principles worked out at negotiations in Madrid last
year, meaning that the people of Nagorny Karabakh gain the right
to self-determination.

Analysts say Moscow is keen to boost its influence in the South
Caucasus after Russia’s brief war with US-allied Georgia in August
raised tensions throughout the region.

The August war, which began when Georgia attacked its own breakaway
enclave of South Ossetia, raised fears of similar violence in Nagorny
Karabakh.

"Russia must repair its image in the Caucasus," said Alexei Malashenko,
a political analyst with the Moscow Carnegie Centre. "The important
thing for Russia is that it is seen to take the initiative."

But Malashenko said a quick resolution of the conflict would require
concessions "at Armenia’s cost" — an unlikely scenario considering
that Yerevan is Moscow’s "strategic partner" in the Caucasus.

Azerbaijani political analyst Vafa Guluzade predicted that the Moscow
meeting would yield little result, as Baku had nothing to gain.

"Russia is looking to restore its influence in Azerbaijan,"
he said. "That’s why negotiations under a format of
Azerbaijan-Russia-Armenia will bring nothing good."

But analysts said that if Moscow decided to push Armenia toward
compromise, Russia could strengthen its position in the Caucasus.

Moscow is vying for influence with Washington in Azerbaijan, a key
energy exporter that ships oil and gas through Western-backed pipelines
through Georgia and Turkey, bypassing Russia.

"Russia is looking to strengthen its influence in the Caucasus… and
if it manages to convince Armenia to compromise on Karabakh, Azerbaijan
could in exchange export its oil and gas via Russian territory to
Europe," Armenian political analyst Stepan Grigorian said.

Armenia and Azerbaijan remain in a tense stand-off over Karabakh,
which ethnic Armenian forces seized in the early 1990s in a war that
killed nearly 30,000 people and forced another million on both sides
to flee their homes.

A ceasefire was signed between the two former Soviet republics in
1994 but the dispute remains unresolved after years of negotiations,
and shootings between Armenian and Azerbaijani forces in the region
are common.