WHO IS TO DETERMINE THE FATE OF THE TERRITORIES AND HOW?
Vardan Grigoryan

Hayots Ashkhar Daily
30 Oct 08
Armenia

Geopolitical hustle and bustle "for Karabakh"

The fact that the Karabakh settlement talks are going to be resumed
by the negotiations to be held in Moscow on November 2 (with
the participation of the Armenian and Azeri leaders and Russian
President D. Medvedev), rather than by the visit of the Co-Chairs
of the OSCE Minsk Group is probably the most obvious evidence of the
unprecedentedly sharp struggle among the superpowers in the region. And
the strictly ambiguous doubts expressed by the M. Jovanovich, the US
Ambassador to Armenia, with regard to the viability of negotiation
format of the OSCE Minsk Group are also an evidence of the above
mentioned.

It turns out that all the parties are looking forward to the speedy
settlement of the conflict. And in his congratulatory message sent
to Azeri leader Ilham Aliev, US President G. Bush also expresses a
‘formal hope’ for progress in the conflict settlement process during
the upcoming months.

As to why the President’s hope bears a formal nature is because the
recent statements of the US senior officials refer to the possibilities
of progress vs. the final settlement of the conflict. Let’s note that
US Under Secretary of State D. Fried who recently visited Yerevan
also pointed out a "possibility" for the settlement of the conflict
by the end of the year but he didn’t speak about the inevitability
of such settlement.

In such context of hints, the unprecedented haste of the Russian
leadership becomes quite comprehensible and normal. Inviting Armenian
President S.

Sargsyan and Azeri President I. Aliev to negotiations on the 2nd of
November, the official Moscow probably wants to make it clear that
it will by all means find the keys to the settlement of the Karabakh
conflict before the Presidential elections to be held in the United
States on November 4.

Clearly, Moscow believes that it’s no use waiting till the new US
Administration assumes its duties on January 20, 2009, because that
will be too late in the estimations of the Russian officials.

In our opinion, the initiative, at least at the current stage, is
invulnerable to Russia as a full member of the OSCE Minsk Group. But
we can’t say the same about Turkey’s "simultaneous haste".

Moreover, it is strange that the information about the possibility of
organizing a trilateral meeting with the participation of the Armenian,
Azerbaijani and Turkish sides reaches us from an anonymous source
of the Azeri Foreign Ministry, whereas our Foreign Ministry remains
silent about the issue. It turns out that some circles in Azerbaijan
have decided that it is possible to organize such meeting in Helsinki
on November 4-5, during the session of the Council Ministers of the
Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE); that’s
why are also going to inform us about it through Turkey.

By trying to involve Ankara in the negotiation process, Azerbaijan
is obviously trying to use double pressure on Armenia on the one
hand and Russia on the other. With regard to Armenia, it is trying to
make it clear to us that the opening of the Turkish border depends on
the outcome of the negotiations; as to the Russian side, Azerbaijan
is threatening it "with the Turkish alternative" which receives the
approval of the United States.

That’s why, Foreign Minister Edward Nalbandyan is immediately trying
to deny the current attempts of finding any relationship between
the Karabakh peace process and the Armenian-Turkish dialogue. But
we believe it is not enough because neither Turkey nor especially
Azerbaijan deny the existence of such relationship. Moreover, they
make it clear that the Armenian-Turkish border will be opened provided
their collective demand is met.

Therefore, Armenia is required to be tougher and more precise
while expressing its approaches, so as not to leave room for any
speculations.

It is also noteworthy that the Nagorno Karabakh Republic, the object of
the universal haste, does not show the slightest signs of nervousness,
and in response to the threats of Baku, organizes large-scale military
trainings.

By inviting the Armenian and Azeri Foreign Ministers, giving them
promises and admonitions and making threats, the world’s superpowers
forget about the following: the issue on which they are having a
dispute and the territories whose status they are discussing are, as
a matter of fact, under the control of the Nagorno Karabakh Republic
both de facto and de jure.

So, who is going to determine the fate of those territories and in
what way, when the existence of the Nagorno Karabakh Republic is
being ignored?

Without the control of those territories, the NKR will not only be
deprived of the opportunity to gain an international recognition but
also be unable to protect the physical existence of its people. And
such major problem is a thousand time more important than the
opening of the "Armenian-Turkish border" and all kinds of economic
and political blockades.

From: Emil Lazarian | Ararat NewsPress