AZERBAIJAN LOOMS LARGE IN CAUCASUS REGION
By Judith Latham

Voice of America
Oct 30 2008

The newly reelected President of Azerbaijan, Ilham Aliyev, was sworn
in for a second term last week after winning the October 15th election
with 89 percent of the vote. Opposition parties boycotted the election,
and monitors from the Organization for Security and Cooperation in
Europe criticized the poll’s shortcomings, especially during counting
and tabulation.

An Azerbaijani Perspective

But whatever the shortcomings of the election, President Aliyev enjoys
enormous popularity in his own country, according to Paul Goble,
Director of Research and Publications at the Azerbaijan Diplomatic
Academy in Baku. Speaking with host Judith Latham of VOA News Now’s
International Press Club, Goble says, even if the election had
been fully free and fair with all the major parties taking part,
the Azerbaijani President would still have been reelected with a
significant majority.

Mr. Aliyev’s election victory cemented his family’s long grip on
power in Azerbaijan. He was elected in 2003 following the death of
his father, Heydar Aliyev, who himself dominated politics in the
country for 30 years. Paul Goble says that stability has been an
important factor in one of the most dangerous and unstable parts of
the world. A key reason is Azerbaijan’s strategic position on the
pipeline carrying crude oil from the Caspian Sea through Georgia and
Turkey. Goble notes that Azerbaijan sits at a unique juncture of a
north-south, and an east-west, axis of influence. Therefore, he says,
Azerbaijan almost has to pursue what President Aliyev has called a
"balanced" foreign policy, taking into account the views of Russia,
Iran, Central Asia, Turkey, Europe, and the United States. And as
Goble points out, the recent war in Georgia demonstrated that the
Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan pipeline is not absolutely secure.

A Georgian Perspective

Georgian journalist and political analyst Ghia Abashidze in Tbilisi
agrees. Abashidze says the war with Russia in August made the issue of
energy supplies in the Caucasus abundantly clear to everyone. According
to the latest reports, Abashidze says, the pipeline is not working at
its full prewar capacity, and it is unclear when it will. And that’s
not only because of the world economic crisis but also because of
the aftermath of last summer’s war. There are still Russian troops
on Georgian soil, so investors are reluctant to restart the pipeline
at its full capacity, Abashidze says.

Nonetheless, Ghia Abashidze says the Georgian leadership sees
Azerbaijani President Aliyev’s reelection in a positive light. People
there remember how Azerbaijan helped Georgia in recent years when
Russia cut off gas and energy supplies, he says, so Georgians expect
that friendly relations with Azeris will continue.

An Armenian Perspective

However, relations between Baku and Yerevan are fraught with tension
because of a long-standing struggle between Azerbaijan and Armenia
over the separatist region of Nagorno-Karabakh. According to Paul
Goble, Moscow has not played a very helpful role there, despite the
new Russian President’s overtures to both sides.

The reality is that the Russian government has not wanted an agreement
between Armenia and Azerbaijan, Goble says. He suggests that President
Dmitri Medvedev may have invited the presidents of Armenia and
Azerbaijan to come to Moscow on Sunday for negotiations partly as
a way of demonstrating Russia’s preeminent position vis-a-vis the
other Minsk Group countries. Goble says that, if Moscow decides it
is in its greater interest to back Azerbaijan, there will be in his
words a "possibility of movement." But, he adds Russia’s geopolitical
calculations in the southern Caucasus have clearly changed.

Emil Sanamyan, Washington editor of the Armenian Reporter, agrees
with Paul Goble that the Kremlin might have ulterior motives in
Sunday’s meetings. Sanamyan says Russia’s brokering of talks does
not necessarily aim at resolution and agreement, but rather is an
attempt to recapture the dominance it used to have in the region. And
in fact Armenian President Serge Sarkissian made the point this week
that, after Georgia failed in its recent attack on South Ossetia,
Azerbaijan would probably think twice about using military options
in Nagorno-Karabakh. Sanamyan suggests that factor alone may improve
the prospects for a peace deal.

U.S. Policy Perspective

According to Paul Goble, Azerbaijan is critically important to
Washington as well as to Moscow. First, he says, there is an interest
in access to oil and gas. Second, he notes there are strategic
considerations and making sure that Azerbaijan, Georgia, and Armenia
understand that the "east-west line" is more beneficial to them. And
third, Goble cautions, progress toward democracy in the region should
not be sacrificed in the name of geo-strategic or economic interests.