Commentary Magazine
Oct 29 2008
Losing The Caucasus
Abe Greenwald – 10.29.2008 – 12:37 PM
America missed a golden opportunity by not taking a larger role in
Azerbaijan’s `frozen conflict’ with Armenia. And Moscow just picked up
the ball dropped by Washington: Russia will soon enjoy the allegiance
of the Azeri population and access to Azerbaijan’s critical gas and
oil reserves.
On November 2, Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev and Armenian
President Serzh Sarkisian will meet in Moscow, where Russian President
Dmitry Medvedev will play peacemaker and try to find a way to end the
on-going conflict. This meeting should have happened in Washington,
with George W. Bush presiding.
I was in Azerbaijan in August, just days after Russia invaded
neighboring Georgia, and it is impossible for me to overstate the
earnestness of pro-Western sentiment in the country. (I’ve written
about it here, here, and here, and Michael Totten has a piece about
the same trip here.) To a man, Azeris practically begged for American
help in resolving the Armenian occupation of Azerbaijan’s Nagorny
Karabakh region. Sadly, following the Palestinian model of victimhood,
there was a lot of talk about the all-powerful Armenian lobby and its
supposed influence in DC. There was no other way for Azeris to
understand why America didn’t do more to help a post-Soviet moderate
Muslim territory with decidedly democratic aspirations.
Russia had sided previously with Armenia in the Nagorny Karabakh
dispute, but in the northern part of the country I saw Russian-made
jet fighters running drills from Azeri bases. We weren’t selling
Azerbaijan weapons`Russia was. Geographically, Azerbaijan borders
Russia, Georgia, and Iran. Politically, it’s torn between snail’s-pace
westernization and continued Kremlin intimidation (plus Tehran’s
largely failed attempts to make an impact.) Instead of tipping the
scales in our favor, we sat on our hands and gave Putin and Medvedev a
priceless gift.
Borut Grgic and Alexandros Petersen write in today’s Wall Street
Journal that Russia is not only hosting talks, but has switched its
support from Armenia to Azerbaijan. If Putin and Medvedev firmly tilt
Azerbaijan in Moscow’s direction, it will be a massive step toward
re-establishing Russian power throughout the Caucasus. It also
furthers Russia’s cause as an indispensable energy player. The
Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan oil pipeline, which begins in Azerbaijan’s capital
city, brings gas and oil from the Caspian Sea directly to European
markets. The whole pending fiasco is a lesson in the cost of American
inaction.
http://www.commentarymagazine. com/blogs/index.php/greenwald/40532