WPS Agency, Russia
What the Papers Say Weekly Review (Russia)
October 27, 2008 Monday

RISK IS ALWAYS INTERMEDIARY’S

ASPIRING TO BROKER THE DIALOGUE BETWEEN YEREVAN AND BAKU, DMITRY
MEDVEDEV RUNS A CERTAIN RISK; Russia offers itself as a broker in the
Azerbaijani-Armenian conflict.

President Dmitry Medvedev made his first official visit to Armenia and
met with his counterpart Serj Sargsjan. Medvedev and Sargsjan
discussed Russian-Armenian economic cooperation and international
affairs.

The situation in the Caucasus is different from what it was before the
August events in South Ossetia. First, Georgian military aggression
against South Ossetia and recognition of South Ossetia and Abkhazia by
Russia showed pointlessness of attempts to solve ethnic conflicts by
sheer strength. Second, American military and political resources
failed to live up to Georgia’s expectations (it had counted on a
solution to its problems). Third, Turkey is emerging as another
instrumental player in matters of regional security. No wonder
Russian-Armenian contacts are so frequent these days. Medvedev’s
negotiations with Sargsjan in Yerevan became their fifth meeting this
year.

Delicate parity of forces and interests in the triangle formed by
Moscow, Yerevan, and Baku does not allow for the assumption that the
dialogue between Russia and Armenia is directed against Azerbaijan. On
the contrary, it was announced during the talks in Yerevan that the
Karabakh conflict should be settled on the basis of compromises and
talks. Medvedev said at the press conference that a meeting between
three presidents was to be arranged in the near future. "I hope it
will take place in Russia," Medvedev said.

Azerbaijan has been expecting it ever since President Ilham Aliyev’s
visit to Moscow not long ago where restoration of the dialogue between
Baku and Yerevan was discussed. This is not Moscow’s first attempt to
broker Azerbaijani-Armenian conflict settlement. Some experts assume
that the concerned parties must be considering some new scenario of
conflict settlement. "I’m not going to elaborate on nuances because
they are nuances which is what makes them so valuable," Medvedev said
in Yerevan. It apparently means that participants in the conflict are
disappointed in the OSCE Minsk Group and resolved to find a solution
on their own.

The conflict affects both countries. Baku is compelled to execute
complicated political and diplomatic maneuvers to enlist world powers’
support for its territorial integrity. As for Armenia, it is
essentially in an economic blockade. By and large, the conflict
impedes development of both Azerbaijan and Armenia.

It is necessary to find a solution that will stabilize the situation
rather than upset it. Doing so is going to be enormously difficult
because the involved states and all sorts of intermediaries have
seemingly discussed all plausible variants over the years.

Dialogues between Yerevan and Moscow on the one hand and Baku and
Ankara on the other may result in appearance of another
"irritant". Should these four capitals opt for a common economic,
political, and cultural zone, it may enable them to approach the
problem at hand from a different direction altogether.

In a word, Medvedev is running a certain risk as the broker between
Armenia and Azerbaijan.

Source: Rossiiskiye Vesti, No 37, October, 2008, p. 1