World Markets Research Centre
Global Insight
October 30, 2008

Russian Government Hosts Mediation Talks Between Armenian and Azeri
Governments

by Grace Annan

Yesterday, the Russian government announced in a statement that it
would host peace talks between the Armenian and Azeri governments in
Moscow on 2 November. President Dmitry Medvedev will mediate between
the Armenian President Ilham Aliyev and his counterpart Serzh
Sargsyan; Medvedev hopes to achieve some tangible progress on the
resolution of the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict.

Significance: The conflict in Nagorno-Karabakh has gained in
international prominence once again since the war in Georgia in August
2008. Armenian and Azeri state officials continue to argue over the
status of the Armenia-supported breakaway republic of Nagorno-Karabakh.
It is in the heart of Azerbaijan but mostly populated by Armenians;
its situation mirrors that of the south-western part of Azerbaijan,
which is separated from the rest of Azerbaijan by a significant piece
of land belonging to Armenia. Recent events give hope for a return to
constructive negotiation between the Armenian and Azeri governments:
Turkey, which holds good relations with Azerbaijan, recently carefully
rekindled its diplomatic ties with Armenia. This can be considered a
minor miracle given previous relations. Ever since the war in Georgia,
the Turkish government has increased its promotion of a Caucasian
Union (see Turkey: 18 August 2008: ). The Kremlin is keen to tap into
the current thaw between Turkey and Armenia, not least in order to
improve its image in relation to the Caucasus, which took a major dent
on the international stage during and after the war in Georgia. The
emphasis of the talks on 2 November is strictly on the fact of them
taking place rather than any anticipated result. They may not yield
much result as neither Aliyev nor Sargsyan are willing to reconsider
their stance on Nagorno-Karabakh in the near future.