WPS Agency, Russia
What the Papers Say (Russia)
October 29, 2008 Wednesday

THREE-WAY MEETING IN THE KREMLIN ON NOVEMBER 2:
Aliyev and Sargsian to visit Medvedev

by Arkady Dubov

Presidents of Azerbaijan, Armenia, and Russia will discuss
Nagorno-Karabakh; A three-way meeting is scheduled in Moscow on
November 2: the presidents of Azerbaijan, Armenia, and Russia will
discuss Nagorno-Karabakh conflict regulation. Azerbaijan still says it
will never recognize the republic’s independence, while Armenia
insists on self-determination for the Karabakh people.

To all appearances, Ilham Aliyev’s first trip abroad after his
inauguration for a second term as president of Azerbaijan will be to
Moscow. A three-way meeting is scheduled there for November 2: the
presidents of Azerbaijan, Armenia, and Russia will discuss
Nagorno-Karabakh conflict regulation. Preparations for this meeting
were mentioned by President Dmitri Medvedev when he visited Yerevan
last week.

The summit for three presidents, all of whom have taken office this
year, is drawing particular interest – depite the habitual pessimism
about the prospects of resolving the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict any
time soon. The reason is obvious: the five-day Russian-Georgian war
has shifted the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict from the "frozen" category
into the more dangerous category of conflicts that might "thaw out" or
even "heat up" rapidly.

This is evident from the international community’s obvious concern
about the South Caucasus situation, which has turned explosive
again. For example, in explaining the purposes of tactical live-fire
exercises carried out in the unrecognized Nagorno-Karabakh Republic
(NKR) on October 25, NKR Defense Minister Movses Akopian said: "We
won’t wait for the Armed Forces of Azerbaijan to attack us. Depending
on the situation, we shall launch an offensive to neutralize any
threat to our security." NKR President Bako Saakian said that if
necessary, military units would "not only take the hostilities into
enemy territory, but take them into the heart of Azerbaijan." Then
again, Saakian issued this warning after confirming that the NKR "is
prepared to start negotiations with Azerbaijan with no preconditions."
The only problem, said Saakian, is that "Nagorno-Karabakh is not a
full-fledged side in a negotiation process."

Some equally resolute rhetoric is being heard from Baku. In his
inauguration address on October 24, President Ilham Aliyev of
Azerbaijan said: "Nagorno-Karabakh will never be
independent. Azerbaijan will never recognize it – not in five, ten, or
twenty years. Never." The conflict can only be rseolved "only within
the framework of Azerbaijan’s territorial integrity," said Aliyev:
"Our hopes haven’t faded yet. We still believe that negotiations could
lead to a fair solution."

Baku’s statement about being ready to negotiate, and Russia’s proposal
to hold a meeting in Moscow, have been greeted with concern in
Yerevan. This was expressed the other day by Stepan Grigorian, head of
the Globalization and Regional Cooperation Analytical Center: "In
order to have Azerbaijan export its oil and gas across Russian
territory, Moscow is prepared to sacrifice some positions on
Nagorno-Karabakh. This is obvious – and even surprising, since wishes
are usually expressed more modestly and less blatantly in diplomacy."
Grigorian says that "artificial acceleration" of the negotiation
process is "dangerous," because "Russia is aiming to solve its own
problem as fast as possible, since Washington will be more active in
this region after the US presidential election."

Another reason for wariness in Yerevan is related to suspicions that
the Moscow meeting will take Nagorno-Karabakh conflict regulation out
of the OSCE Minsk Group framework. According to Armenian analysts,
OSCE decision-making is based on consensus, enabling Armenia to block
any verdicts it doesn’t like; but other formats for internationalizing
the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict – the United Nations, for example –
would not offer Armenia that opportunity.

Responding to these suspicions, Armenian President Serge Sargsian said
that "the one and only mediator is the OSCE Minsk Group." Sargsian
went on to say: "Armenia has never requested any other country to
perform a mediation mission, and attempts to create confusion don’t
help us at all." Analysts believe he was referring to reports that
Turkey is prepared to propose itself as chief mediator for
Armenian-Azeri talks.

Regarding the upcoming meeting in Moscow, Sargsian said that
"President Dmitri Medvedev Enhanced Coverage Linking Dmitri Medvedev’s
invitation and his activity on this issue are entirely natural," since
Russia Russia is a co-chair of the OSCE Minsk Group. According to our
sources, the three-way meeting will take place in the presence of
three Minsk Group co-chairs from Russia, the USA, and France. They may
participate in informal contacts between the presidents of Azerbaijan
and Armenia, as such representatives have done in similar meetings
before.

As President Sargsian said, the Kremlin talks on November 2 will be
based on the "Madrid principles" – ten written proposals formulated by
OSCE Minsk Group co-chairs for a meeting between the presidents of
Armenia and Azerbaijan in Madrid on November 29, 2006. The chief
proposals call for a referendum in Nagorno-Karabakh, the liberation of
Armenian-occupied districts of Azerbaijan around Nagorno-Karabakh, and
demilitarization of those districts. However, President Sargsian said
in the same TV interview that "the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict can only
be regulated if Azerbaijan recognizes the Karabakh people’s right to
self-determination." Baku still regards this principle as
unacceptable, so the Moscow meeting doesn’t seem to promise any
sensational developments.

On the other hand, Sargsian’s words were primarily aimed at the
domestic audience in Armenia – to convince the public that the
interests of Nagorno-Karabakh’s Armenians will not be
betrayed. However, Sargsian also named some other conditions for
conflict resolution, including "international organizations and the
world’s leading nations providing security guarantees for the Karabakh
people." The important question is how the Madrid principles might be
implemented, in what order, and what conditions may be tied to them.

Source: Vremya Novostei, No. 201, October 29, 2008, p. 5

Translated by InterContact