Will be settled, if…

Haykakan Zhamanak , Armenia
Oct 28 2008

Will be settled, if…

by Anna V. Hakobyan

Armenian President Serzh Sargsyan went on a surprise visit to Nagornyy
Karabakh on Friday [24 October] evening to take part in military
manoeuvres, according to official interpretations.

However, for many officials of the Nagornyy Karabakh republic [NKR],
Sargsyan’s visit was unexpected, moreover, no information was released
regarding Sargsyan’s visit to Karabakh on Friday or
Saturday. Pro-government TV channels are also silent about the visit,
and in Nagornyy Karabakh, according to our information, journalists
were forbidden to ask Sargsyan questions from the first day of his
visit – the reason was that a news conference would take place the
next day. However, no news conference took place, and in general there
is very little information on Sargsyan’s surprise visit to
Karabakh. There is an impression that the manoeuvres were organized in
haste, at least that a few NKR officials were not informed in advance
that manoeuvres would be held there and that Serzh Sargsyan would also
take part in those is an expressive fact in itself.

The visit, in general, was accompanied by such irregularities because
it was not a usual one and a necessity emerged to find substantiation,
portray it as an official visit and so on, which was done through
manoeuvres and opening of a new building. The whole issue is that, as
our NKR sources say, Sargsyan had to go to Stepanakert [Xankandi] the
day before to meet the NKR top brass as representatives of the latter
had demonstrated serious concerns and anxiety regarding the recent
developments in the Karabakh issue, Sargsyan’s behaviour and, in
particular, regarding the promises to return the occupied territories
[seven districts around Nagornyy Karabakh under Armenian control].

So, according to our information, Sargsyan dispelled the anxiety of
the Karabakh generals in the following way: he assured them that no
dangerous circumstance had emerged in the process of the Nagornyy
Karabakh settlement and that the conversations about ceding
territories were just diplomatic methods. Sargsyan’s assurances most
probably were not quite convincing, as NKR president Bako Sahakyan
stated after the manoeuvres: "The NKR’s state independence and
security cannot be subject to bargaining or speculations." This
statement of Sahakyan indirectly refers to Sargsyan, moreover, to
concerns which emerged due to the actions of the latter in Nagornyy
Karabakh. If the NKR president says that the independence and security
of the NKR, that the territories, which are the NKR’s security belt,
cannot be subject to bargaining, this means that he did not
unambiguously accept Sargsyan’s explanation that the conversations
about it were only diplomatic methods.

Sargsyan probably himself realizes that he has not managed to dispel
the suspicions of the Karabakh people and that it has become clear
that the latest developments in the Karabakh issue have been
unfavourable for Armenia. Sargsyan tried to dispel concerns also in an
interview with Armenian Public TV in Karabakh. "The settlement of the
Karabakh issue is possible if Azerbaijan recognizes the right of the
Nagornyy Karabakh people to self-determination, if Nagornyy Karabakh
has a land border with the Republic of Armenia, and if international
organizations and leading countries guarantee the security of the NKR
people," Sargsyan said in the interview. Thus, he spoke once again
about "the Madrid principles" proving that the conversations about the
return of territories were not diplomatic methods at all, at least
diplomatic methods do not occur in interviews for domestic consumption
given in one’s own country.

"If Azerbaijan recognizes the right of the Nagornyy Karabakh people to
self-determination," Sargsyan said. If we expand on it, this would
mean if Azerbaijan consents that a referendum on Nagornyy Karabakh’s
status is held, and the Nagornyy Karabakh people determine their
status in this way. "If Nagornyy Karabakh has a land border with the
Republic of Armenia," Sargsyan said. If we expand on it, this would
mean if we come to an agreement with Azerbaijan regarding the Lacin
corridor [the only land route between Armenia and Karabakh]. "If
international organizations and leading countries guarantee the
security of the Nagornyy Karabakh people," Sargsyan said. And if we
expand on it, this would mean if international organizations and
leading countries come to an agreement about deploying peacekeeping
forces in the occupied territories that are to be returned to
Azerbaijan, because if the territories are not returned to Azerbaijan
then the Nagornyy Karabakh has a buffer zone, as is the case today,
and the security of the Nagornyy Karabakh people is guaranteed.

In his interview Sargsyan also commented on the statement of Turkish
President Abdullah Gul who said that the initiator of Turkey’s
mediation in the Karabakh issue was not him but Serzh Sargsyan. "As
for the interpretation of President Gul’s statement, I would like to
say in the first place that as you may have noticed, I do not have a
habit of interpreting what other figures say, especially that parts
taken out of the context are published in our press," Sargsyan said,
adding that "the Karabakh settlement is being mediated by the OSCE
Minsk Group on the basis of the Madrid principles, there are no other
mediators – the only mediators are the co-chairs of the OSCE Minsk
Group, and the confusion, which someone is attempting to create, is
not assisting us in any way". "Armenia has never asked any country to
play the role of a mediator," Sargsyan said.