GEORGIAN POLITICAL SCIENTIST PAATA ZAKAREISHVILI: "ARMENIA SEEMS TO BE PURSUADED TO WITHDRAW FORCES AT THE COST OF HOLDING A REFERENDUM IN KARABAKH"

Today.Az
politics/48705.html
Nov 3 2008
Azerbaijan

By raising the issue on the resolution of the Karabakh conflict,
Russia tries to prove to the world that it regulates the processes in
the Caucasus, said conflict scientist Paata Zakareshvili, commenting
on the document, signed between the Presidents of Azerbaijan, Armenia
and Russia in Moscow Sundau.

"It is already 12 years that Presidents of Armenia and Azerbaijan
have not signed any joint documents. In this sense this is a progress,
but on the whole this is a superficial document.

The document includes five paragraphs. It does not fix any principal
issues and no paragraph is new. It seems that signing the document
is more political than directed at the conflict resolution. Thus,
Russia shows to the world that it plays an important role in the
Caucasus and takes all the decisions.

After the conflict with Georgia in August, Russia demonstrated its
influence on the other countries as well. This is Russia’s next
demonstration of its influence", said Zakareishvili.

The political scientist noted that the Karabakh issue is a complicated
issue which can not be settled only by formation of such a document. It
is necessary to sign additional documents.

"Karabakh conflict is too complicated and I do not think that it
can be settled by the help of this document. This document can be a
basic stage of the process. This document is exclusively political
and nothing more. The process can be launched on the basis of other
documents which means that it is necessary to development additional
documents, which can promote it", said Zakareishvili.

According to Zakareishvili, Russia needs Azerbaijan for regulation
and control over the energy sources of this country.

"Russia has turned Georgia into an disabled state and "settled"
relations with it for some time. It needs good relations with
Azerbaijan to manage the issues of energy sources. Certainly, this
is not seen from the document, signed by the presidents of the three
countries but the two-hour one-one-one meeting of Sargsyan and Aliyev
could not be by accident", said Zakareishvili.

The conflict scientist notes that Armenia will be ready to return
at least five of seven occupied regions to Azerbaijan and thus the
Karabakh conflict settlement will overcome the deadlock.

"The Karabakh conflict is multilayer and multilateral. This conflict
will not be settled at once, but there are some moments in which
Armenia can make concessions.

If Armenia starts to withdraw forces from seven regions of Karabakh,
it will be a serious sign that Russia could provide positive impulses
into relations between Azerbaijan and Armenia,.

Certainly, it is impossible to speak of the return of Karabakh, but
Armenia seems to be persuaded to withdraw forces at the cost of the
referendum in the Karabakh.

Perhaps, Azerbaijan and Armenia have reached this agreement,
in exchange Russia will get Azerbaijan’s favor and in the future
Azerbaijani energy sources from be supplied only under Russia’s
agreement", said Zakareishvili.

Presidents of Azerbaijan, Armenia and Russia notably signed a
declaration on the resolution of the Karabakh conflict in Moscow on
November 2.

The document fixes that the sides "will promote the improvement of
the situation in the Caucasus and ensure stability and security in
the region by way of the political resolution of the Karabakh conflict
in line with the principles and norms of international law.

The sides agreed that all stages of the peaceful resolution will have
international guarantees and legal commitments.

Under the document, the Presidents of Armenia and Azerbaijan agreed
that they will further work on the political resolution of the conflict
and instructed their foreign ministers to "intensify the process of
negotiations with cooperation of the OSCE Minsk Group co-chairs".