IRAN AND THE USA MAY COME TO AN UNDERSTANDING, LEAVING ASIDE THE ISRAELI-TURKISH FACTOR
Karine Ter-Sahakyan

PanARMENIAN.Net
01.11.2008 GMT+04:00

Iran is trying hard to return to the family of civilized nations,
and if it is able to normalize relations with the United States a
great progress can be reported in the Region.

As some American sources report, after the presidential elections
George Bush might declare his intention to reestablish democratic
relations with Iran 30 years after they were broken off. If this
happens Bush will at least have an opportunity to leave at peace and
tranquility. Moreover, he will finally acquire the desired image of
a "peacemaker". Still early in summer the US Administration used to
stress the possibility of bombing the Iranian nuclear bases, which,
according to the European lobby, threatened the Republic of Israel.

/PanARMENIAN.Net/ However, with the gap widening between Obama and
McCain this kind of position of the Republicans is not obviously to the
Americans’ liking, especially with the worsening financial collapse
that will definitely be followed by industrial depression. Quite
naturally under such circumstances it would be simply fatal to sever
relations with a country that has oil, gas and plays a considerable
role among oil-producing states. Of course Israel is an important
character in the American foreign policy, but most central for the
US are its own interests, and they claim that no hasty decisions
should be made against Iran, and, generally, against the Islamic
world otherwise the policy in Iraq and Afghanistan will repeat itself.

George Bush considers, and it’s quite reasonable, that solution of
the problem on diplomatic relations with Iran should be suspended
till better times for it not to complicate the pre-election campaign.

In its turn, Tehran is well-aware of this initiative but her position
on the matter remains unclear. President of Iran Mahmoud Ahmadinejad
declared in New-York that he is ready to reconsider the issue of
reestablishing diplomatic relations between Iran and the United
States. However, these are just statements necessary for both sides.

Iran is trying hard to return to the family of civilized nations, and
if it is able to normalize relations with the United States a great
progress can be reported in the region. It is not a coincidence that
all these talks initiated only after the August shock had a bit calmed
down. Iran found herself excluded from the process of reformatting
the region, which was quite undesirable for her. Meanwhile,
Turkey had already managed to declare about its Caucasus Platform
of Stability, whereas without Iran regional stability would be
out of the question. Though, if Iran and the US renew diplomatic
relations, Ankara will have to suffice itself with secondary roles,
as, for a number of reasons, Iran will never agree to the second
position in the region. One of the basic reasons is its maintenance
of normal relations with all the countries of the region, including
Turkey. Sometimes normal relations are pretentious, but Iran is not in
direct confrontation even with Azerbaijan. Turkey, however, cannot be
described as being in good relations with its neighbours. Under its
sword of Damocles there hang the Turkish-Armenian relations. And in
spite of the "hot" statements of Yerevan and Ankara on "optimism"
and "progress", the relations will never cross the threshold of
empty statements.

Iran can also render considerable assistance in the settlement of the
Nagorno-Karabakh conflict, as it is a practically neutral country. The
talks about the "brotherly Azerbaijani nation" are just empty words
and what Tehran bewares most is increase of Turkish influence in
the region, which may seriously intervene normal relations in the
Caucasus. Georgia is not counted as a political unit as no one can
foresee the outcome of confrontation between Mikhail Saakashvili and
former partners. In all probability in the Caucasus, as well as in
the region as a whole, there should be expected great transformations
in relations between the countries and with the powers.