IS GUUAM DEAD?
cafebabel.com Nov 3 2008 France
By AriRusila on Monday, November 3 2008, 09:34 – Caucasus –
Permalink After "Cold War" US has all the while expanded its
influence post-Soviet territory with aim to guide those region’s
natural resources under US companies. As stakes have been control
over the oil and gas of the Caspian Sea/Black Sea/Caucasus basin,
and the control of multiple key energy pipelines criss-crossing
the region. Economical interests have been linked to political game
e.g. Nato enlargement. While EU has been more bystander Russia has
during last couple of years weight down the scale in favour of its
own interests by series of successful operations.
GUUAM & SRS
GUUAM (Georgia, Ukraine, Uzbekistan, Azerbaijan and Moldova) Group was
founded 1999 with help of US to foster favourable conditions conducive
to economic growth through development of an Europe-Caucasus-Asia
transport corridor. GUUAM was dominated by Anglo-American oil
interests, ultimately purports to exclude Russia from oil and gas
deposits in the Caspian area, as well as isolating Moscow politically.
>From its part GUUAM was designed to support sc. Silk Road Strategy
Act – adopted by US Cogress March 1999 – which defined America’s
broad economic and strategic interests in a region extending from the
Mediterranean to Central Asia. The Silk Road Strategy (SRS) outlines
a framework for the development of America’s business empire through
development of an Europe-Caucasus-Asia transport corridor. (More
about this in my previous article "War on Pipes" Sep. 2008, in my
Archive:Blog )
Cracks
Now GUUAM is coming to end of its short road. Already earlier
Uzbekistan withdraw from it leaving behind a stump GUAM. Then Georgia
started its aggressions with false idea of western support leading
today’s situation and possibility to escalate to "small intensity war"
between present Georgian leadership and separatist regions Abkhazia
and South-Ossetia.
Moldova was aiming towards Nato and EU but after conflict in Georgia
it started to look other alternatives. Russia has offered its help
to solve Moldova’s long term problem with Transdnistria and if a
federation model will be accepted by local stakeholders it probably
neutralizes Moldova’s position between US/EU and Russia.
Last weekend was also highlight of tendency where political attitudes
of Azerbaijan and Russia have approached each other. Russia again took
the initiative acting as a mediator between Armenia and Azerbaijan to
solve long term conflict of Nagorno-Karabakh and a common memorandum
signed 2nd November 2008 is first step of solution.
The last piece of GUUAM is Ukraine, which is deeply divided pro-Russian
East and pro-Nato/EU West. When political struggle now has made
cracks also inside western orientated part also this last fortress
has degenerated to stagnation.
KO
Parallel with Russia’s able foreign policy the US actions have been
short-sighted, weak and fruitless. Waiting for elections and financial
turmoil have took their part but in energy sector also some states
in South-America have now more independent and selfish position than
before. Same time Iraq occupation is coming to end when also Alaska
can keep its energy reserves when new US President takes his office the
perspectives of US energy giants are more foggy than for a long time.
If one would like to see a bright side with this depression – or
even knock out – of US foreign/energy policy it could be the need to
reduce pollutions and to support alternative energy solutions which
at global scale could help to deal with clima change.