EU MOBILIZING ON NABUCCO
Barcin Yinanc

Turkish Daily News
Nov 4 2008
Turkey

European Commissioner for Energy Andris Piebalgs is set to tour
countries that can supply the gas for the notorious Nabucco pipeline;
the project European Union hopes will ease its dependence on Russian
energy sources.

Piebalgs will go to Azerbaijan and Turkmenistan. He will also come
to Ankara tomorrow, the day EU’s progress report on Turkey will
be released, and Thursday he will hold talks with Hilmi Guler, the
Energy Minister. He might also meet with President Abdullah Gul as
well as Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan, since he has asked for
an appointment with both of them. I am pretty sure he will be accorded
these appointments since the meeting of the leaders of long-time foes
Azerbaijan and Armenia in Moscow should have sounded the alarm bells
in both Brussels and Ankara.

There has been very little progress on the Nabucco pipeline project,
which is intended to transport Caspian energy resources to Europe
via Turkey. The EU has been blaming Turkey for the disagreement on
the pricing mechanism. Turkey, on the other hand, has been blaming
the EU for the absence of a common energy policy, which has led to a
lack of political will toward Nabucco. The fact that some of the same
countries in the Nabucco project have also been flirting with Russia
regarding alternative pipeline routes has led to question marks on
the EU’s commitment to Nabucco.

The Russian assault in Georgia, seen as a disproportionate reaction
to Georgia’s offensive, is also perceived by Europeans as an effort
to control oil and gas supplies to Europe. The war seems to have
served as an eye opener for the need of diversification. According to
Turkish officials, the EU has started to focus again on Nabucco and
work has picked up to finalize the intergovernmental agreement on the
legal framework for the project by the end of the year. A technical
delegation from the EU was in Ankara 10 days ago, prior to the visit
of Piebalgs.

Unable to have a unified stand against Russia during the summer
conflict, it remains to be seen to what degree they can pull their
act together on Nabucco. And even if this time they decide to give
the project more momentum, the recent mobilization on the part of the
protagonists for the Nabucco project might mean too little, too late.

The talks between Azeri and Armenian leaders convened by Russia’s
president to settle the dispute over Nagorno-Karabagh is not just a
result of Moscow’s affection for peace in its near abroad. Russia’s
mediation effort is rather based on its effort to control the oil
and gas supplies to Europe by re-establishing its influence in the
crucial energy corridor. After having exploited energy-rich former
Soviet republics, Gazprom has told Azerbaijan as well as Turkmenistan
that it was ready to pay higher European market prices for their gas.

They are now offering another incentive to the Azeri leadership: a
solution to the Nagorno-Karabagh problem. With its latest diplomatic
and economic offensive, Russia seems to be leading in the energy
game. Then again, this is a game too complicated to predict the
winners in advance.