AZERBAIJAN: REACTION IN BAKU MUTED TO MOSCOW DECLARATION ON NAGORNO KARABAKH
Shahin Abbasov

EurasiaNet
Nov 3 2008
NY

Russia is hailing a November 2 summit meeting with Azerbaijani
President Ilham Aliyev and Armenian President Serzh Sargsyan on
the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict as a historic milestone, but, back in
Azerbaijan, many analysts see the summit as having been more about
stagecraft than about achieving breakthroughs.

Aliyev, Sargsyan and Russian President Dmitri Medvedev signed a
declaration in Moscow on November 2 that reaffirms the non-use of
force and observance of international law as the guiding principles for
resolution of the 20-year conflict. All three parties also endorsed the
notion that the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe’s
Minsk Group should act as the conflict’s mediator, a role that has
recently been exposed to some doubt. [For background see the Eurasia
Insight archive]. To underline their commitment to the existing
negotiating format, Aliyev and Sargsyan ordered their respective
foreign ministers to put greater emphasis on negotiations.

"The presidents aim to improve the situation in the South Caucasus
and confirm the importance of OSCE mediation and the need to support
the peace settlement process with legally binding international
guarantees," the declaration reads.

A pleased Yuri Merzlyakov, Russian envoy to the Minsk Group, noted
that the Moscow declaration became the first document signed by both
the Armenian and Azerbaijani presidents since the 1994 cease-fire.

In Baku, the official reaction to the declaration was something less
than excited. "There is no need to look for something new in signing
of the document," Foreign Ministry spokesman Khazar Ibrahim told
journalists. "The talks still continue and the document indicates their
significance. Foundation is needed to be laid to shift to next stage."

Azerbaijani analysts were similarly muted in their reaction. "So
what?" commented former presidential foreign policy advisor Vafa
Guluzade. The document, Guluzade argued, has no real value.

"Russia did not want to end the visit with nothing. So it had the
presidents sign this declaration that has no importance," Guluzade
said. "The declaration does not have any binding authority. It lays
no responsibility [on anyone for anything]."

Another Baku analyst agrees. "I think that Aliyev and Sargsyan signed
this declaration only to satisfy Moscow," commented Elhan Shahinoglu,
head of the Atlas research center, a Baku-based think-tank. "Russia
needed some success in its South Caucasus diplomacy after the conflict
in Georgia and, therefore, was very active on the Nagorno-Karabakh
issue in October," he said. [For background see the Eurasia Insight
archive].

Eager to cast itself as the Caucasus’s peace broker after its recent
imbroglio with Georgia over the breakaway region of South Ossetia,
Russia of late has emerged as the most vocal proponent for Karabakh
negotiations, maintaining direct dialogue with both Baku and Yerevan
outside of the Minsk Group format.

The United States, Turkey and France so far have all reacted favorably
to the uptick in Russia’s diplomatic activity.

US Assistant Secretary of State Daniel Fried made the most optimistic
statement in early October when he spoke about the possibility of a
settlement "before the end of 2008." A day after Azerbaijan’s October
16 presidential vote, meanwhile, US Secretary of State Condoleezza
Rice said that she expected Karabakh peace talks to gain steam. [For
background see the Eurasia Insight archive].

Eldar Namazov — an opposition politician who served as an aide to
late President Heidar Aliyev, Ilham’s father — believes that both
Moscow and the West see the Karabakh conflict as a chance to restore
a semblance of balance to East-West ties after the August Georgia
conflict. "Therefore, Russia is doing its best to present itself as a
neutral mediator, while the United States and France support Moscow’s
efforts," Namazov said.

In an October 7 interview with the state-controlled Rossiyskaya
Gazeta, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov termed the future of
the so-called Lachin corridor, the narrow strip of Armenian-controlled
territory connecting Karabakh with Armenia proper, as the key issue
still on the table.

Moscow, however, has denied that it is trying to monopolize the peace
process, cutting Western rivals out. At an October 23 news conference,
Russian Ambassador to Azerbaijan Vasily Istratov emphasized that the
OSCE Minsk Group "remains the main format of the conflict resolution,"
although noted that the resolution process has many formats, which,
"fortunately, are not in conflict with each other."

For Shahinoglu, though, deeds mean more than words. And with the
fundamental positions of Baku and Yerevan on Karabakh still unchanged,
he noted, neither side seems prepared to make necessary compromises.

Editor’s Note: Shahin Abbasov is a freelance correspondent
based in Baku. He is also a board member of the Open Society
Institute-Azerbaijan.